There appears to be a unspoken desire within the new regime to restore not only Hungary’s territorial borders but also the monarchy. Austria’s neutrality should not mislead anyone, just as the NATO membership of the aforementioned countries should not. In the event of a planned major European war and Russia’s defeat, NATO would become a burden for Europeans. New military alliances would emerge, followed by new conflicts
Following Péter Magyar’s victory in the parliamentary elections held in mid-April in Hungary, it is already worth discussing changes in country’s politics .
First and foremost, Magyar predictably lifted the veto on the loan to Ukraine of 90 billion euros. True, it immediately turned out that there is no such money in the European Union budget (nor was it intended), and the EU will have to borrow the money externally in order to transfer it to Kiev, as soon as money are available. Let us also note that Magyar essentially postponed indefinitely the issue of Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the EU, promising to put it to a referendum. On the other hand, France has already stated that Ukraine is not really expected to join the EU. But one can accept it formally, without granting any rights or preferences, that is, one could simply imitate accession. Other countries of the bloc, including Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, insist on strict adherence to the “merit-based” accession process without geopolitical exceptions.
The European Union indeed is not eager to see Ukraine as part of it, and Hungary under Viktor Orbán was a convenient pretext for dismissing Kiev’s complaints. This pretext is now eliminated, yet the reluctance remains.
Moreover, the accelerated admission of Ukraine into the EU as a full member creates a harmful precedent, at a time when Brussels intends to change the rules and abandon unanimous decision-making on key issues in favor of a qualified majority. This will finally allow the major players — Germany, France and Italy — to push through the decisions they want, simply by bribing or intimidating the satellites. And given Ukraine’s temperament, it will certainly block these reforms, selling its “veto” whenever possible.
It was Orbán who prevented the abolition of the principle of unanimous voting, and the EU achieved his departure from the political scene. Brussels stated this quite unambiguously.
Less then a day after Viktor Orban’s defeat, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged to “use the momentum now” for the EU to get more power over national governments to force through foreign policy decisions. “Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past,” she said.
Another important option that opened up following the victory of Magyar’s party is, in essence, a revival of Austria-Hungary, naturally in new political conditions. Magyar stated that he wants to strengthen the political weight of Central Europe. As Politico writes, to this end, the newly elected prime minister intends to strengthen relations with all of Hungary’s neighbors, but intends to pay special attention to Austria — including because of past historical ties.
“We used to share a country, and Austria is a key economic partner of Hungary,” said Magyar. “I would like to strengthen the relationship between Hungary and Austria for historical but also for cultural and economic reasons.” According to him, in addition to Hungary and Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia should also be included in the new political bloc, which is why Magyar plans to visit Warsaw and Vienna as early as May.
In Austria, the creation of a “Benelux in Central Europe” was viewed positively. According to one senior Austrian diplomat, all of the above-mentioned countries (previously part of the Habsburg Empire) are “countries of roughly the same size with a large number of common interests.” Officially, the alliance will provide its members with more opportunities in determining the political course of Europe.
And although the restoration of the dual monarchy with the Habsburgs at the head is hardly possible today, the new bloc claims to become a new pole of power within the EU itself — on a par with Germany and France. So, when talking about the reform of the European Union in terms of decision-making or dividing its members into a core and a periphery, Magyar’s initiatives actually continue the line of Orbán, who also tried to create a kind of bloc of Central European countries that would balance the France-Germany axis.
However, there are a number of serious obstacles on the path to the implementation of “Austria-Hungary 2.0”. Poland, part of which, following the Napoleonic Wars, was acquired by Austria, is currently too large and ambitious a player to fit into someone else’s construction in a subordinate role. Despite its dislike of Germany, Warsaw historically maintains very warm relations with France, and now also with the USA. Causing it to turn against the German-French axis is a very difficult, albeit achievable, task. Another question is whether it will want to fit into someone else’s project and what it will ask for in return.
Austria, in turn, is traditionally cautious and neutral and is unlikely to want to openly oppose Berlin and Paris. The only project that could simultaneously interest the French, the Poles, and the Austrians is the partition of Germany. And before that, as a prerequisite, the collapse of the European Union. But for this, a major war in Europe is needed. And Russia is indispensable here, two world wars are a vivid example. In this case, is the ongoing militarization of Europe and the pumping up of the military-industrial complex under the false pretext of the Russian threat a preparation for dragging Russia into this major European war?
If the ultimate goal of creating a bloc of Central European countries, a conditional “Austria-Hungary 2.0”, is the partition of Germany, and more broadly, redrawing borders in Europe, then Hungary here acts rather as a proxy of the same Habsburgs, rather than an independent player. And it is worth remembering that as a result of two world wars, Hungary lost about two-thirds of its territory, and this trauma is still alive in the soul of the people and is even reflected at the level of the Constitution.
In this sense, it is symbolic that immediately after the announcement of the victory of Magyar’s party in the elections, the session of the new parliament opened for the first time with the anthem of Székely Land — a Hungarian national autonomy on the territory of Romania. And from the Hungarian point of view, Székely Land is part of the national historical space.
Also, from now on, Hungarian deputies will swear oath not on the country’s Constitution, as before, but on Hungary’s Holy Crown. It was previously considered a symbol of the bearers of power of the Kingdom of Hungary, which included the territories of modern Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia and partially Ukraine (Transcarpathia).
The aforementioned Székely Land was precisely part of this state. Thus, there appears to be a unspoken desire within the new regime to restore not only Hungary’s territorial borders but also the monarchy. Austria’s neutrality should not mislead anyone, just as the NATO membership of the aforementioned countries should not. In the event of a planned major European war and Russia’s defeat, NATO would become a burden for Europeans. New military alliances would emerge, followed by new conflicts.
This is a translation of an excerpt from the article No chance of stability by Olga Levandovksaya, Dmitry Vetchinkin, Maksim Karev, first published in The Essence of Time newspaper, issue 669.
