15.02.2026, India.
Apparently, in New Delhi they hope, not without reason, that by the time India has to fulfill its part of the deal, the situation in Washington will have changed once again.
Not even a week had passed since the signing of the free trade agreement between India and the EU, when on February 2, US President Donald Trump announced that in a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he had agreed to conclude a trade deal.
Of course, the American politician stated that Modi had abandoned purchases of Russian oil and generally agreed to all American terms. However, in reality, as is often the case with Trump’s statements, things are a little different.
Content of the Agreement
For some time, only vague statements from Indian and American politicians appeared in the media. On February 6, the White House press service published a joint US-India statement regarding the deal. It became clear from this that the treaty has not yet been concluded, but rather concerns a framework agreement about it. The key terms are stated as:
— India eliminates or reduces duties on industrial goods and on a “wide range of food and agricultural products” from the USA. Looking ahead, it’s worth noting that this clause caused the greatest concern among the Indian public;
— The USA reduces duties to 18% on Indian goods that were previously subject to 50% duties, and eliminates duties on certain aircraft and aviation components from India;
— The parties agreed to discuss non-tariff barriers in trade. It is specifically noted that India will remove barriers for medical devices from the USA;
— Over the next 5 years, India intends to purchase energy resources, aircraft, precious metals, technological products, and coking coal from the USA for $500 billion;
— India and the USA will remove barriers in the field of digital trade.
It is separately noted that India and the USA intend to significantly increase trade in technological products, including graphics processors and other equipment for data centers.
It’s worth pointing out the fact that the treaty has not yet been concluded, yet the reduction of duties on Indian goods by the USA is already in effect.
Russian Oil
Half of the 50% duties imposed in 2025 on goods from India were explained by Trump as a demand for India to stop purchasing oil from Russia. In his announcement about concluding the deal, the politician stated that Modi “agreed to stop purchases of Russian oil.” However, the statement published by the White House made no mention of Russian oil.
Explaining the terms of the trade agreement, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, gave an evasive answer to a question about oil imports from Russia. He stated that purchasing crude oil and LNG from the US aligns with India’s strategy to diversify its sources of oil.
“But decisions are made by the buyers themselves, by the companies themselves. Therefore, the trade agreement does not discuss who will buy what and from where,” the minister added.
Subsequently, Reuters reported that New Delhi supposedly intends to abandon oil purchases from Russia. Citing anonymous sources, the agency claims that India plans to soon reduce its average purchase volume from Russia from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1 million barrels, and by mid-March to reduce it further to 500-600 thousand barrels per day.
However, throughout 2025, Reuters repeatedly made similar predictions about an imminent sharp drop in oil purchases from Russia, which subsequently did not materialize, so they should not be blindly trusted.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated on February 11 that only Trump, among officials, has spoken about India reducing purchases of Russian oil.
It seems unlikely that India can radically reduce oil imports from Russia quickly. Possibly, formally it might no longer be Russian oil, but oil from some Asian country; however, it’s hard to imagine New Delhi abandoning oil purchases from Moscow. Alternatively, Indians might extract an additional discount from Russia, citing US pressure and the risk of the deal falling through due to continued purchases, so supplies might not be as profitable for Russia as they could have been.
However, in the end, Trump himself admitted that India does not intend to abandon imports of Russian oil. On February 11, speaking about Indian companies, he stated: “Now they buy very little. They have greatly reduced their purchases.“
Assessment of the Deal by Indian Authorities
In his commentary on the forthcoming agreement, Commerce Minister Goyal stated that it would strengthen long-term strategic cooperation with the USA. “Our partnership encompasses much more than just trade. We have a strong defense partnership, and we are members of two quadrilateral alliances. We both share interests in critical minerals and in technology partnership,” the politician emphasized.
Commenting on concerns about concessions on imports of feed grains from the USA, the minister noted that the quota for duty-free supplies from the USA is only 1% of India’s total animal feed consumption. He also stressed that importing such feed would reduce the import of corn and soybeans for feed purposes.
The head of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, Nitin Nabin, stated that under the trade deal between India and the USA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi “protected the interests of farmers and workers and strengthened the nation’s self-respect.“
Criticism from the Opposition
The Indian opposition unleashed very active criticism of the treaty. Leaders of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, called the pact a “complete surrender.” They claimed that New Delhi agreed to high American duties of 18% on many Indian goods while granting American goods practically duty-free access to the Indian market.
Most criticism is directed at the part of the treaty concerning the agricultural sector. Opposition politicians stated that cheaper, mechanized US agricultural products would undermine the position of Indian farmers. They point out that the joint statement on the deal published by the White House is extremely vague and demand a detailed discussion of the treaty in parliament before its final approval.
The opposition also criticizes the willingness of the Indian government, as declared by Trump, to abandon Russian oil. They call such a move handing over India’s “energy security” to the USA.
On February 10, opposition MPs even held a protest action outside the parliament walls, demanding a detailed discussion of the treaty in the lower house of the legislative body.
Preliminary Results
The agreement itself is far from being signed, and its parameters are not final, but certain conclusions can be drawn. It is already obvious that the terms of the deal with the US differ radically from the recently agreed treaty with the European Union.
While that agreement was indeed a free trade agreement where the parties were formally equal, the skeleton of the treaty published by the White House provides for no free trade zone.
Even if New Delhi defends its position on contentious points—protecting its agricultural sector and continuing oil purchases from Russia—the terms of the treaty will still remain unequal. It is obvious that the main beneficiary is the USA, while India, in return for duty removal and a commitment to purchase $500 billion worth of resources, receives duties of 18%, which may seem moderate only when compared to the 50% duties in effect in 2025.
Why then did New Delhi agree to conclude such an unfavorable deal? It can be assumed that Modi’s government considered it tactically the most suitable option. After all, Indian producers have started benefiting from the sharp duty reductions already, while reciprocal concessions from India will only be provided after the final version of the treaty is signed.
And this process can be stretched out for years. Apparently, in New Delhi they hope, not without reason, that by the time India has to fulfill its part of the deal, the situation in Washington will have changed once again, and they will be able to back out of their preliminary promises.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
