16.08.2026, India.
The Indian authorities have proposed equalizing the representation of states in parliament on a per capita basis, but the wealthy southern states disagree. Meanwhile, the difference in birth rates between regions is becoming twofold.
India has always been something more than just a country throughout its history; it is not without reason called a subcontinent. Experts note that in terms of cultural, linguistic, and national diversity, it can be compared to Europe.
For example, Hindi – the language of northern India – belongs to the Indo-European language group, and Indologists note that it has much more in common with Russian than with the languages of the southern states, which belong to the Dravidian group.
Since gaining independence, the central government has had to exercise maximum flexibility to maintain a balance between the wishes of various regions. Currently, the country is experiencing a protracted political crisis related to the redistribution of constituencies and changes in the future representation of states in the lower house of parliament, called the Lok Sabha.
The essence of the crisis
The crisis, which the media has dubbed “delimitation,” involves three interrelated processes: changing the overall size of the Lok Sabha, redistributing seats among states, and redistributing constituency boundaries within each state. The most heated debates at the national level concern the first two issues.
According to the constitution adopted after independence, the representation of states in the Lok Sabha was linked to the population of each region, and it was assumed that it would be recalculated after each census.
However, the 42nd amendment to the constitution, adopted in 1976, froze redistribution. The composition of parliament was fixed for many years based on the 1971 census. This was done so that states that were more successful in implementing the family planning program would not lose representation in parliament. The imposed restrictions will remain in effect until the first census conducted after 2026.
Currently, a census is underway in the country, which will be completed in 2027. After that, seats must be redistributed, and heated political debates are already raging around this process.
Current situation
Currently, the Lok Sabha has 550 deputies representing all regions of the country, but over the years of the freeze, a large disproportion has accumulated between the number of deputies and the population of each state.
For example, Tamil Nadu is currently represented in the lower house by 39 deputies, which, with a population of about 77 million, corresponds to almost 2 million people per deputy. At the same time, the population of the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, is over 240 million, and it is represented in the Lok Sabha by 80 deputies, which is already about 3 million people per deputy.
Overall, the four southern states – Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Kerala, where about 21% of the country’s population lives, are represented in parliament by 129 deputies, while the most populous Hindi-speaking states – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where more than a quarter of India’s population lives, have only 120 seats.
If the relevant articles of the Constitution are unfrozen and representation is recalculated according to the current demographic distribution among states, the northern states will greatly increase their representation in parliament in percentage terms, which clearly displeases the southern states, as their influence will decrease.
Demographics
The roots of the problem lie in the uneven population growth over the past more than half a century. The north and south of the country essentially live in different demographic eras. The official Economic Survey 2025-2026 table notes the difference in the total fertility rate, which shows the number of children per woman. At the national level, it is 1.9, which is already below the replacement level. This suggests that in a couple of decades, India’s population will generally decline.
However, this process is uneven. For example, in Tamil Nadu it is 1.3, and in Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana it is about 1.5. While in Uttar Pradesh it is 2.6, in Bihar – 2.8, in Madhya Pradesh – 2.4, in Rajasthan – 2.3.
The birth rate per 1,000 people shows roughly the same gap. For example, in Kerala, 11.4 babies were born per 1,000 residents in 2024, and in Uttar Pradesh – 23.5. That is, the difference in birth rates between regions is twofold.
The reasons for what happened are that the more industrially developed south has already undergone the so-called demographic transition. This is clearly demonstrated by the difference in urbanization. The last completed census in 2011 showed that in Tamil Nadu the share of the urban population was almost half – 48.5%, while Uttar Pradesh remained predominantly rural – 77.7% of its population lived outside cities. Over the 40 years since 1971, the percentage of urban population in Tamil Nadu grew by 18 percentage points, and in Uttar Pradesh – by only 8.3 percentage points. The decline in birth rates in southern India was also driven by the fact that the richer southern states more actively promoted the national policy of family planning and birth control.
Therefore, the percentage ratio of the population of states in different parts of the country has already changed over these 50 years, and this gap will only widen. If the principle of redistribution of seats is adopted, each subsequent census will lead to a decrease in the weight of southern states in parliament.
Economy
However, the southern states generally disagree with this because they make a greater economic contribution compared to the northern ones.
For example, for the 2025-2026 financial year, the gross regional product (GRP) of Tamil Nadu, whose population is almost three times smaller, exceeds the GRP of Uttar Pradesh – 31.2 trillion rupees (27 trillion rubles) versus 30.3 trillion rupees (26 trillion rubles). Accordingly, per capita income differs by three times.
Currently, in terms of finances, the picture looks like this: the southern states have greater political influence than they would have based on population, but they receive less subsidies from the center and effectively subsidize the less economically developed regions.
Electoral reform
The initiator of the reform was one of the leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian Home Minister Amit Shah. His promise consisted of three elements: that the delimitation process would restore equal weight to votes, because currently the Lok Sabha represents the demographic picture of 1971, which has changed significantly since then. However, at the same time, the center promises the southern states that their position will not be infringed upon. In addition, Shah proclaimed that the reform would lead to greater representation of women, because it is planned to introduce a 33% quota for women.
However, these promises contradict each other, and legal protection of the interests of the southern states is not enshrined in any way. Therefore, during the vote on the first version of the law, which took place in parliament in April, this proposal was not adopted. 298 deputies voted for the amendment, 230 against. To change such a level, it is necessary to gather two-thirds of the votes, that is, 352 votes. Even together with allies, the BJP has only 293 deputies, so to change the electoral system, it needs to come to an agreement with the opposition.
Current state of the problem
The southern states are actively opposing the planned reform. For example, on August 12, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Vijay, introduced a resolution in the Legislative Assembly against the BJP initiative. At the same time, the politician noted that he supports quotas for women, but emphasized that they must be introduced without changing the structure and size of the Lok Sabha.
“If the bill is adopted, the representation of the southern states, which have successfully implemented population control, will suffer. It is necessary to freeze these figures,” said Vijay, who leads the TVK party.
Before introducing the resolution, Vijay tried to gather all 57 federal deputies of the state, but only about 20 came to the meeting. Opposition deputies ignored the event, but this happened not because they agree with the BJP proposal, but because they do not want to recognize Vijay’s leadership and his TVK party.
In general, the elites of the southern states are united in their negative attitude towards the proposed reform. However, one should not assume that this contradiction could spark a deep conflict between the states and the federal center, fraught with separatism. Most likely, the central government will show the flexibility traditional for India, and the crisis will end with a new compromise.
Despite the huge difference, the regions of India demonstrate a phenomenal ability to negotiate and a desire to preserve the unity of their country.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
