Why is not only a deficit of rain dangerous for the agricultural sector. India’s agriculture this year has faced several major problems. The country managed to overcome the first of them — a fertilizer shortage caused by the war in the Middle East.
However, in recent months, India has faced a new, even larger problem — climate change. And here it all does not come down to the precipitation deficit predicted back in the spring.
Summer Drought
In the spring, experts predicted that the El Niño phenomenon would repeat on the planet this summer. This is a climatic phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This affects air mass circulation and can change the usual precipitation seasons throughout the entire Eastern Hemisphere.
The prediction began to come true, and already in June the country faced delays and weakness of the traditional monsoons. India Today reported that as of June 17, about 24.8% of the country’s territory experienced abnormal dryness or drought. In the state of Maharashtra, this figure reached 61.7% of the territory.
By July 14, more than half of the country’s 741 districts were already facing a precipitation deficit. The area sown to rice decreased by 8.6% compared to the same period a year earlier. The sown area for other agricultural crops also decreased.
On September 29, India’s Central Water Commission reported that by the end of the southwest monsoon season, the country had approached with the lowest reservoir fill level in the last 10 years. The agency noted that 178 key reservoirs across the country are 70% full, whereas the ten-year average is 76.62%. The situation is worst in five states of South India, where this figure was 50% against 87.25% a year earlier.
Floods
However, the situation turns out to be more complicated than just a total drought. Already in the summer, while some regions suffered from a lack of water, other Indian states faced an excess of it. Thus, in the period from June 1 to August 14, the state of Gujarat received 13% more precipitation, and Odisha — 33% more.
And at the end of September, India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, faced large-scale flooding. In 60 hours, 775% more precipitation fell than usual. “In the period from September 25 to the morning of September 27, the state received 66.5 mm of precipitation against the norm of 7.6 mm for this period,” the newspaper The Indian Express quoted government officials as saying.
Extreme rains also hit neighboring Nepal, which was forced to open the gates of its dams to release large flows of water to save them. As a result, a section of the protective dam was breached, water poured into unprotected areas, flooding more than 30 villages.
At least 62 people died, 46 were injured, and more than a thousand houses were damaged. Water flooded fields right before the harvest: rice, legumes, oilseeds, and millet were affected. At the same time, the flood not only threatens the harvest campaign but may also delay the sowing of winter crops. Simultaneously, 19 of the 75 districts of the state still have a deficit or scarcity of precipitation.
In September, the state of Bihar also faced large-scale flooding. As of September 12, according to government data, the flood affected about five million people in 15 districts. The water level rose to a record mark of 50.58 meters, exceeding the 2016 record. The state’s problems did not end there. In neighboring Nepal, heavy rains fell at the end of September, and a flood wave moved along the Gandak River. A dangerous water level was recorded at several dams in the state.
Actions of the Authorities
At the end of September, the authorities of Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of 358 tehsils — approximately 75% of the state’s territory. The drought declaration triggers a very specific administrative mechanism: assessment of crop losses, restructuring of agricultural loans, exemption or concessions on land payments, relief on electricity payments for agricultural pumps, and special water supply planning.
After the dam breach in Uttar Pradesh, the authorities announced an urgent evacuation for all residents within a 10-kilometer radius of the breach zone. India’s disaster response forces, as well as provincial police units, were involved in the evacuation. Compensation for farmers for damaged crops was announced.
In India, both floods and droughts are classified as disasters for which compensation primarily falls on the regional budget. If the scale is recognized as particularly serious, the state can request additional funding from the center.
In the case of floods, the authorities’ actions are divided into two categories: emergency response — warnings, evacuation, boats, camps, food, compensation; and adaptation — preparation of dams and drainage for floods, development of reservoirs.
Crop Forecasts
The harvest has not yet been collected, so it is impossible to accurately assess the impact of droughts and floods on it. India’s Ministry of Agriculture on September 29 published a target for grain crops for the 2026–2027 financial year. It was set at 373.93 million tons, which is 2.63 million tons lower than in the 2025–2026 financial year.
The ministry estimated the precipitation deficit nationwide at 14% and noted that over the past few days it had decreased by 2%.
Climate Change
On September 30, the Indian meteorological center announced the end of the monsoon season. The center noted that during this time, precipitation was 12.6% below normal. According to the department, from June to September, the country received 759.4 mm of precipitation, which is the fourth-lowest monsoon season figure in the last 25 years.
The agency also noted unusually high temperatures in September. The average maximum temperature in India was 32°C, the highest for September since 1901.
The Indian meteorological center has not yet published its forecast for the 2027 season; it usually comes out immediately before the season. However, experts suggest that the situation next year will be similar to the current one.
The situation in 2026 has not become something unique for India. A study conducted on 1950–2015 data in central India showed that the amount of monsoon precipitation in the region decreased by about 10%, but the frequency of extreme rains (≥150 mm per day) increased by about 75%, and the number of widespread extreme episodes increased approximately threefold. At the same time, the frequency of moderate rains decreased.
A similar situation is observed in other areas. A study of extreme precipitation for 2000–2015 found a statistically significant reduction in the number of days with weak rains in the northeast, simultaneously with an increase in the number of very heavy and extremely heavy rains.
At the same time, in the traditionally sufficiently arid northwest, on the contrary, in 1999–2022, the average amount of monsoon precipitation in the northwest was approximately 8.7% higher than in 1901–1998.
A study of precipitation data across India for 1901–2020 also made it possible to trace a significant increase in extreme precipitation indicators in most regions.
Conclusion
The combination of drought and floods in 2026 fully reflects the overall picture of climate change in India. These changes boil down to the fact that monsoons are becoming less convenient for the country — drought periods are increasing, and water increasingly falls in such extreme amounts that it turns into flooding, also destructive for agriculture.
So far, this trend does not greatly affect the harvest; however, if the scale of changes increases, India may face the need for serious changes in its agriculture.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
