02.11.2025, Aleksandrovskoye.
The main conclusion that Arab countries could draw for themselves is that they can no longer trust Washington as the sole guarantor of security as they once did, and they will have to rethink the entire security architecture, including creating new alliances.
The Persian Gulf countries and the Islamic world as a whole are experiencing global shifts in the regional security architecture. The latest event in this series was Israel’s attack on negotiators of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Doha. Washington, selectively demonstrating a policy of disengagement (the White House claims it did not know about Israel’s attack), raises questions for the Arabs about the reliability of the security guarantees developed over decades of US policy in the Persian Gulf. What goals will regional and global players pursue in the context of the collapse of the established paradigm?
Israeli Strike on Doha
On September 9, 2025, a series of explosions rocked the northern part of Doha. In a residential area of the Qatari capital, the building housing the headquarters of the Hamas politburo exploded. At that moment, the movement’s political leadership was discussing the peace plan of US President Donald Trump for the war in Gaza. Only 10 minutes after the strikes did the Qatari authorities receive a call from Washington with information about the “impending” attack. The strike with heavy bombs was carried out by the Israeli Air Force, using 15 fighter jets and several UAVs for support.
“The call received from a US official came against the backdrop of the sounds of explosions caused by the Israeli attack in Doha,” wrote Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on social network X.
Later, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters that “the Trump administration received notification from the US military that Israel would attack Hamas.” However, the military itself stated that the Pentagon did not have prior technical data on the Israeli strike and that Israel’s attack was recorded only during its active phase.
US Air Force Central Command head Lieutenant General Derek France explained that all available detection assets at the US Al Udeid airbase in Qatar are “typically focused on Iran and other locations from where we expect an attack.” This is why the US forces present in Qatar missed the attack.
This, at least, is the official version of events – Israel, without coordinating with its patron, the US, independently struck Qatari territory, attacked the Hamas leadership there, and Washington received information about this attack too late and failed to warn the Qataris – one of the key US military-strategic allies in the Middle East – in advance. Israel notified Washington only at the moment of the attack, which killed five Hamas representatives and one Qatari security officer.
There is still no precise information about exactly when Israel informed the US about the attack, when Washington relayed this information to Qatar, and how to explain the exceptional “unawareness” of the US regarding Tel Aviv’s intentions. Interestingly, just a day before the attack, US President Donald Trump advised Hamas to support his peace plan for the situation in Gaza.
“I warned Hamas of the consequences of non-acceptance. This is my final warning, there will be no other!” Trump wrote on the Truth Social network.
Be that as it may, the Israeli attack on Qatar provoked a strong reaction both in the Middle East and around the world. The main US ally, hosting the largest US airbase in the Middle East, was attacked by another US ally. The Arab countries linked to the Americans by military-technical alliances could not help but feel the ambiguity of the situation. And it would be strange if all this did not generate a response from US allies to such a surprising blunder.
Almost immediately, Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani characterized the Israeli attack as “state terrorism” and began preparing an emergency Arab-Islamic summit.
Before examining the entire complex of reactions from the Arab-Islamic world to Israel’s impudent attack, let’s consider the context of the region’s countries’ relations with Washington, which, whether intentionally or not, allowed this situation to happen.
US-Arab Military-Strategic Cooperation
Washington has a reliable presence in the Middle East, with several major military-strategic partners, primarily Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, and to a lesser extent, Egypt and the UAE. And these countries, in turn, see the US as their key military-strategic partner. It would be an overstatement to call the US the sole military partner for these countries, but it is certainly necessary to say that this partner is key for them.
US and Qatar
Qatar is heavily dependent on American military imports. Doha purchases weapons from the US (especially air defense, missile defense systems, and aircraft), signs defense agreements with Washington, and has a special status in the structure of US military supplies. Thus, since 2022, Qatar has received the status of a Major Non-NATO Ally. Such US allies have preferential rights to purchase certain types of weapons, participate in research cooperation, receive excess US military property, and so on.
According to US Congress data and reports from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency, for the period from 2012 to 2022, major arms deliveries to Qatar alone are valued at over $32 billion. Moreover, the data published by Congress is “excluding direct commercial sales approved by the US State Department.” In reality, the actual volume of US-Qatar military contracts is orders of magnitude higher.
The country hosts the US Central Command (USCENTCOM), responsible for operations in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia.
Finally, the largest US airbase in the Middle East is located precisely in Qatar. Al Udeid is the largest command hub for conducting military operations in the region. Since 2024, the presence of the US contingent at the base has been extended for another 10 years. By the way, initially, such a US stronghold in the region was in Saudi Arabia, but in 2003 the CENTCOM headquarters was moved to Doha. This was due to the tension that arose between Riyadh and Washington after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
US and Saudi Arabia
The history of military-strategic relations between the two countries spans several decades. Its foundation was laid during the meeting between US President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz in the Suez Canal, on board the destroyer USS Quincy. Then, in 1945, the principle of mutually beneficial relations, unchanged to this day, was established: oil and strategic access to resources in exchange for security and military support. The principle was reflected in a secret pact, later called the “Quincy Pact.”
On May 13, 2025, an information bulletin appeared on the White House website, according to which Saudi Arabia is the largest US partner under the Foreign Military Sales program, with current military contracts valued at over $129 billion. In addition to Foreign Military Sales, there are other programs under which military cooperation between the two countries takes place. Riyadh purchases F-15SA fighters, Apache helicopters, Patriot and THAAD systems, armored vehicles, ammunition, and aircraft engines from Washington.
With a Saudi military budget of $75-78 billion (in 2024), Riyadh spends between $15 and $20 billion annually on current military contracts with the US, not counting major arms deals (for example, the 2017 arms deal for $110 billion).
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, from 2020 to 2024, the largest share of all major weapon systems imported into Saudi Arabia belongs to the US – 74%.
US and Bahrain
Bahrain has very close military-strategic ties with the US. It is enough to recall that the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in this country, with all the accompanying infrastructure for a naval grouping of this scale. This is as important a stronghold for Washington for conducting operations in the Middle East as the airbase in Qatar.
US and Other Countries in the Region
Washington is also a key military-technical partner for the UAE – these are both major military contracts and regular joint military exercises, etc.
Egypt also uses US military-technical support as a long-term partner. Washington allocates $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt annually.
Thus, the region is densely populated with American weapons and enveloped in American military programs and contracts. The key players in the region are connected to Washington by the closest military ties.
Reaction to the Israeli Attack and First Steps
On September 15, an emergency Arab-Islamic summit was held in Doha. It brought together representatives of almost 60 Arab and Islamic states. All participants unanimously condemned the Israeli attack and promised to take measures to prevent similar incidents in the future, agreeing to “activate a joint defense mechanism.“
On September 18, an emergency meeting of the defense ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries was held in Doha. The participants adopted a whole package of measures to strengthen collective security. In particular, the parties agreed to intensify intelligence sharing through a unified military command, regularly have a common picture of air operations throughout the Persian Gulf, and accelerate work on a joint ballistic missile early warning system. As a result, a whole range of measures was adopted aimed at more closely linking national defense systems to counter “any potential threats or acts of aggression.”
Furthermore, the participants signed the final document of the meeting, according to which an attack on Qatar is henceforth “an attack on all states” of the Persian Gulf.
It is worth noting that all the described steps so far remain a formality, behind which there are no significant actions uniting the Arab world. Another event also reveals the deep disagreements in the Arab world on regional security issues.
After the Israeli attack, Egypt expressed support for Qatar and again put forward a proposal to create a military alliance in the Middle East similar to NATO. This idea was first voiced by Cairo after the start of the war in Yemen in 2015.
The idea of creating joint Arab security forces was supported by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. According to him, Islamabad will support Arab states and “fulfill its duty” to the Muslim community.
However, immediately after the summit, Middle East Eye, citing Egyptian diplomats, reported that Egypt’s plan to form Arab defense forces along the lines of NATO was blocked by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Diversification of Military Alliances
The main conclusion that the countries of the region could draw for themselves is that they can no longer trust Washington as the sole guarantor of security as they once did, and they will have to rethink the entire security architecture, including creating new alliances.
Saudi Arabia took the first step in this direction of diversification. On September 17, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif signed a treaty on military-strategic cooperation in Riyadh.
“The agreement stipulates that any aggression against one of the two countries is considered aggression against both countries,” according to a statement following the visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif to the kingdom.
Obviously, this pact was a direct response by Riyadh to the Israeli attack on Qatari territory. Of course, it did not arise out of nowhere – the closest cooperation between the two countries has a long history. It is known, for example, that Riyadh played a significant role in financing Pakistan’s nuclear program since the late 1970s. Hence the persistent talk about the possible provision of a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia by the grateful Pakistani Armed Forces. However, no matter how close and long-standing these ties are, the speed of formalizing and signing an interstate defense agreement in less than a month is truly exceptional.
The signed treaty does not contain clauses on Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons in the event of a threat to Riyadh. But immediately after the deal was signed, speculation appeared in the press about the possible use of nuclear weapons within the framework of the reached agreements. The Financial Times quoted a senior anonymous Saudi official who is convinced that Pakistan “will use all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat.” The same is said by the former US Special Representative for Afghanistan, American diplomat of Pashtun origin Zalmay Khalilzad. In his opinion, the Saudi-Pakistani pact was signed at a dangerous time.
“Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems capable of hitting targets throughout the Middle East, including Israel. It is also developing systems capable of hitting targets in the US,” Khalilzad stated concernedly on social network X.
In Pakistan itself, they are confident that there will be no need to resort to the nuclear arsenal to protect Saudi Arabia.
“Pakistan is more than confident in the adequacy of its conventional capabilities… The Pakistani Armed Forces… are sufficient to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s security without resorting to the nuclear option,” Associated Press quotes Islamabad security analyst Syed Muhammad Ali.
Riyadh has also intensified the development of parallel tracks of military-technical and strategic cooperation with other countries. For example, on October 15, Saudi Arabia and China began joint naval exercises codenamed Blue Sword 2025.
Qatar is also strengthening alliances. In particular, the emirate turned to its other close ally, which also has its own military base in an Arab country – Turkey. On October 22, more than a month after the Israeli strikes, Qatar and Turkey signed four strategic agreements at once, one of which directly concerns the military sphere.
Is the US in a Hurry to Make Amends?
If we follow the logic of the official statements of the US and Qatar, Washington needs to somehow atone for its myopia in the situation with the Israeli strike. Understanding the justified indignation of Arab partners and the risks of losing trust, the White House is forced to somehow compensate for the diversification drift of the Arab monarchies.
Immediately after the Arab summit, a high-level Qatari delegation went to Washington, after which a series of interesting events occurred.
Here is what Middle East Eye writes, citing its high-ranking sources in Egyptian diplomatic circles: “The Qatari delegation returned from Washington with messages to Arab states emphasizing that no resolutions should be adopted against Israel. The Americans promised that President Donald Trump would handle the crisis and restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from similar attacks on other Gulf countries. The Emirates strongly supported this position.“
On September 29, an executive order by Donald Trump was published on the White House website, providing Qatar with security guarantees on terms similar to NATO’s Article 5. The order, in particular, states that the US “will consider any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.” In the event of an attack on Qatar, the White House promises that the US “will take all lawful and appropriate measures, including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military, to protect the interests of the United States and the State of Qatar.“
Then, on October 17, it became known about the likely preparation of a new strategic agreement between Washington and Riyadh. This was reported by the British Financial Times, citing its sources. According to the newspaper, Saudi Arabia and the US plan to conclude another pact on military cooperation in November, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud visits Washington. The agreement will include expanded military and intelligence cooperation, as well as security guarantees similar to those mentioned in Donald Trump’s law on protecting Qatar.
Adhering to the same logic of US “unawareness” and Tel Aviv’s independence, let’s assume that Israel again commits some daring act of aggression and uses its fighters against the same Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or other Arab allies of Washington. After that, will the US attack Israel? Or will they be forced to smooth things over again and enter into even closer alliances with the Qataris or Saudis? How far will this integration go? And is another logic emerging behind this?
Despite the casualties of the Israeli attack, including a Qatari security officer, the act of attacking the Hamas negotiation point in Doha is largely symbolic. Israel itself later admitted that the strikes did not achieve their goals – the group’s leaders survived, and Prime Minister Netanyahu apologized to the Emir of Qatar. But what really happened was the even greater integration of Qatar and Saudi Arabia into the structure of US military exports.
However, the issue of a new round of arming Arab countries in the context of new strategic agreements with the US is very problematic. According to experts’ assessments, the IDF’s weaponry obviously surpasses the Arabs’ deterrent means. The same Patriot systems in service with Qatar were unable to intercept the Israeli attack on September 9, unlike the THAAD missile defense system purchased by Doha but still not delivered by the Americans.
It is in this context that the attempts of Arab countries to work out parallel military-strategic tracks, including rapprochement with China and Russia, are interesting. For example, according to an assessment by Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Alexander Yakovenko, which he gave in an article for the Russian International Affairs Council on September 25, it is the choice in favor of Russian and Chinese weapons by the Algerian authorities, including air defense and aviation, that has so far deterred Israel.
It is worth recalling Donald Trump’s May tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. On this trip, Trump focused on concluding investment deals worth, according to various estimates, from $2 trillion to $3.6 trillion. The deals are intended to promote the economic development of the United States. That is, we are talking about direct investment by Arab states in the American economy. However, it’s not all about direct investment benefits and trillions. The US strategy for the Greater Middle East, which has been in place since the early 2000s, remains unchanged.
If at the beginning of their history in the 20th century, the relations between Arab countries and the US were built on uniting against the USSR – preventing Moscow from controlling Middle Eastern resources and countering the expansion of the socialist camp – now the place of the USSR has been taken by China – the main US competitor in the modern world.
The instrument in this struggle has been Islamism, which was already launched in the form of a chain of color revolutions in 2011. Now the West has again begun to restart these processes in the Middle East, toppling regimes in Syria and Afghanistan. The US strategy for the region involves destroying nation-states disobedient to Washington and organizing Islamist chaos, which is needed to cut China off from resource supplies and, if possible, sever its ties with Russia and Iran. Further, the US plans to transfer this chaos through Central Asia even closer to China’s borders.
Whatever is hidden behind the Israeli strike and the subsequent reformatting of the regional security architecture – calculation or blunder – Washington will not allow the Arab world to drift freely either to Asia or to Europe. With this strike, the US has tied both Israel and the Persian Gulf countries even more closely to itself. At stake are trillions of dollars and the notorious global hegemony.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
