As military escalation increases globally, unmanned vessels are gaining immense popularity. Surface and underwater underwater vehicles are becoming the main combat units of modern navies.
The rapid development of unmanned systems has led humanity to create drones that operate in all environments — in the air, on land, and in water.
Sea drones — both surface and underwater — are already widely used in modern combat operations. For instance, unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and underwater drones employed by the Ukrainian armed units have inflicted significant damage on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and infrastructure in the Black Sea.
At the beginning of Russia’s special military operation, enemy USVs successfully attacked several ships of the Black Sea Fleet. Notably, the Crimean Bridge was blown up in July 2023 using surface vehicles.
On December 6, there was another attempted attack on the Crimean Bridge. In this instance, the Ukrainian armed units used the Gavia drone for the first time.
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Maksim Kondratyev, the founder of the unmanned aviation training center and corresponding member of the Russian Engineering Academy, explained that the Gavia drone is a research underwater vehicle developed by the Icelandic company Teledyne Marine, with development starting back in 2010. This device can dive to depths of up to 1000 meters, and its military modification can carry up to 30 kg of explosives and move at a speed of 5-6 km/h.
Five such drones were moving towards the Crimean Bridge, but they were timely detected and destroyed by the aviation of the Black Sea Fleet.
NATO’s Unmanned Fleet
It can be assumed that by continuously supplying Ukraine with various modifications of sea drones for attacks in the Black Sea, the West is thereby conducting tests of different models of these devices in real combat conditions.
Now, NATO announced that it plans to create an entire fleet of unmanned vessels operating in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.
As stated by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Pierre Vandier, this decision is driven by the need to protect the alliance’s critical underwater infrastructure. In the early stages, it is expected that the drones will patrol the seas and monitor all activities, both surface and underwater.
“There is no name [for now], just USV Fleet. In fact, it already exists… We are to experiment with the first talks about this and then work with the allies to find a proper way to make this happen,” said Vandier. He noted that this work could be accelerated by the experiments already conducted by the US Navy’s Task Force 59.
Since 2021, this group has been integrating unmanned systems and artificial intelligence in the area of operations of the United States Fifth Fleet. It operates out of Bahrain and includes unmanned aerial vehicles and other unmanned vehicles working alongside manned ships.
In early November, the task force participated in the Digital Talon exercise, during which they managed to remotely launch an unguided munition into the sea and test the vertical takeoff and landing of unmanned aerial vehicles from the deck of an unmanned surface vehicle. According to Vandier, the immediate goal is to launch a fleet of surveillance drones by the next NATO summit, which will be held in the Netherlands in June 2025.
The naval forces of NATO countries already operate a large number of unmanned boats. The primary mine countermeasure drone is the French Inspector 125 unmanned surface vehicle. It has the following specifications: full displacement of 18.1 tons, length of 12 meters, width of 4 meters, maximum speed of 25 knots, and autonomy of 40 hours. The vessel is designed to operate at a range of up to 12 miles. However, for constant surveillance in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas, NATO will need a more autonomous vessel with an even greater range. Such developments are already underway in NATO countries, as well as in Israel and Singapore. Work is also underway to create underwater vehicles for conducting reconnaissance in the marine environment, similar to the Gavia autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles.
The future NATO unmanned fleet may also include robotic marine minehunters — large units with a displacement of up to 2800 tons, equipped with various robotic systems, including remotely controlled boats, autonomous underwater vehicles for comprehensive mine detection and destruction, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles. These ships will have advanced underwater work capabilities, including on the seabed, to monitor and protect critical underwater infrastructure (cables, pipelines) and conduct hydrographic and hydrological surveys.
Italy has begun construction of five such minehunters. In France, construction is underway on 12 Oostende-type minehunters for Belgium and the Netherlands. Based on this project, France will also build a series of such ships for itself.
The project to create a NATO unmanned fleet has been supported by NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) and the operational headquarters of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). Starting in December, NATO’s fleet will begin monitoring the underwater infrastructure of the Baltic Sea based at the newly established maritime center of the alliance in Finland.
Pierre Vandier compared this idea to police surveillance cameras installed on street lamps in troubled urban areas to capture evidence of crimes and noted that similar technology can be applied to maritime areas using unmanned vehicles.
What should Russia expect?
Naturally, it is logical to assume that the West wants to ensure the safety of its underwater communication cables laid on the seabed with the help of the unmanned fleet. Moreover, two cases of cable damage were recently recorded. On November 17 and 18, a telecommunications company’s cable between Lithuania and Sweden was cut, and a cable running between Finland and Germany was damaged.
However, Russian military experts are unanimous in their opinion that NATO’s unmanned fleet is primarily being created to spy on Russian ships.
For example, military expert Aleksey Leonkov suggested that NATO will use three types of drones: aerial reconnaissance drones monitoring the water surface; naval surface and underwater unmanned vessels also spying on Russian ships; and strike vessels that will be the first to attack in the event of a military threat.
“The idea [of creating a NATO unmanned fleet — Rossa Primavera News Agency] looks interesting and smooth, but its implementation is quite complex. Therefore, in Western media related to IT technologies, the topic is being discussed that all these drones will be controlled by artificial intelligence within the framework of ‘Swarm Drone’ tactics. Regardless of where the drones will be: in the air, on the water, or underwater,” Leonkov explained.
He also expressed the opinion that this idea may become obsolete when it is implemented and assured that the Russian defense industry will be able to quickly develop and produce weapons to counter such a fleet.
“Based on the results of the special military operation, I think the Russian defense industry will find the most effective antidote against such drones and the most effective reconnaissance tools to detect the places from where these drones are controlled,” Leonkov concludes.
However, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov believes that Russia should take the creation of a NATO unmanned fleet seriously. First and foremost, this is fraught with provocations. “Such a small vessel, like an unmanned vessel, can, remaining unnoticed, especially at night, set itself up under a Russian ship… Attacks by unknown boats on our tankers, especially those on black sanction lists, can also be expected. Let’s not forget that the port of St. Petersburg is one of the largest in Russia, with a very significant cargo turnover. And the supply of the Kaliningrad exclave is mainly by sea,” Boltenkov asserts.
In his opinion, the Russian Navy will have to escort civilian ships in the Baltic Sea and resume permanent combat duty in the area. It may also be necessary to act reciprocally and create its own fleet of unmanned boats to escort civilian ships. And of course, all this will lead to another round of military escalation between Russia and NATO.
Turkey as a Potential Rival to Russia in the Black Sea
In the context of modernizing Russia’s Navy, serious attention should be paid to the modernization of the Turkish Navy, including its unmanned capabilities, which are advancing rapidly on the other side of the Black Sea.
Earlier this year, the Turkish Navy received TCB Marlin SİDA, the world’s first combat surface vessel equipped with electronic warfare (EW) systems.
According to open sources, the TCB Marlin SİDA drone can participate in military and reconnaissance operations as a surface maritime platform. It can jam communication signals and various devices equipped with radio signal transmission-reception sensors. The marine drone, with its radar system and satellite navigation system, can be based in ports and on large military ships.
Depending on the tasks, this drone can be equipped with guided missiles, torpedoes, an automatic cannon, a hydroacoustic buoy to increase the detection range of underwater targets, a variable frequency sonar, and automatic information processing. The Turkish unmanned vessel has a range of 400 nautical miles (740.8 km), a mission duration of 24 hours, and a maximum speed of 36 knots.
Additionally, the Turkish drone-carrying amphibious assault ship TCG Anadolu (L-400), built based on the Spanish Juan Carlos I LHD, is set to become the world’s first specialized drone carrier and the flagship of the Turkish fleet. Although Russian military experts have typically criticized the Turkish “Bayraktar” carrier due to the small combat load of the drones compared to any fourth-generation fighter — the Turkish UAV can carry about 100 kg of bombs and missiles. In addition to its aircraft carrier function, TCG Anadolu can transport tanks, amphibious assault vehicles, cargo containers, landing craft, and troops. It should be noted that ships of this class are not intended for defense.
It should be noted that in Russia, two universal amphibious assault ships of the Ivan Rogov project, one for the Pacific Fleet and one for the Black Sea Fleet, were laid down in 2020 at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch. However, in terms of implementing this project, we are significantly behind other countries — the planned launch dates for Russian ships are 2027–2028.
As of today, the Turkish Navy comprises 165 warships and boats, and Turkey’s military shipbuilding program continues to develop rapidly. Clearly, Erdogan’s ambitious goals require appropriate support, and a strong navy is one of the components.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s shipbuilding industry demonstrates capabilities in constructing ships of various classes, including large-tonnage vessels. In turn, Turkey’s defense industry successfully addresses the tasks of equipping ships with domestically produced weapons.
Turkey clearly sees itself as a powerful maritime power, aspiring to an active presence at sea.
The Naval Drone Arms Race
Ukraine claims that it has learned to produce kamikaze sea drones independently. For example, Black Sea Fleet ships were attacked by Magura V5 vessels developed by the Ukrainian state enterprise Spetstechnoexport. Its technical characteristics are as follows: length — 5.5 meters, width — 1.5 meters, range — 450 nautical miles, cruising speed — 22 knots (maximum — 45 knots), payload capacity — 320 kilograms. The Magura V5 is considered a semi-submersible vessel, with its upper hull rising only half a meter above the water, making it difficult to detect and target.
Magura V5 is not the only Ukrainian maritime drone. For the attack on the Crimean Bridge on July 17, 2023, the Kyiv regime used the Sea Baby boat, capable of carrying over 800 kg of explosives. Although it is claimed that the Sea Baby is purely a Ukrainian development, it is unlikely to operate without US satellite communication, especially since it has a Starlink module installed.
The rapid use of USVs by Ukraine has led to the creation of effective countermeasures by Russia. These are the so-called remotely operated modules used on land vehicles. Optical-electronic stations detect targets several kilometers away. These can also be installed on ships.
Additionally, a new version of the Komar 3M47-03E anti-aircraft missile system (turret installation) with guided missiles Ataka has been created to counter unmanned vessels, expanding the system’s functionality. The missile system is equipped with optical-electronic and thermal imaging target recognition systems with a daytime range of up to 20 km.
Russia is also advancing in the production of sea drones. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Aleksandr Moiseyev, the operation of the modern navy is impossible without integrating such systems. The topic of unmanned systems and robotic complexes is not just relevant; it is “the objective reality of today,” and their rapid integration into all areas, including the military sector, is necessary.
Among Russian developments are the Vizir unmanned boat, developed by specialists of the Military-Industrial Holding KMZ (Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant), the Orkan marine drones, the BEK-1000, and the autonomous unmanned vehicle MMT-300.
However, despite many interesting domestic developments in marine drones, there is a significant problem in their testing and serial production.
According to Andrey Bratenkov, Executive Director of the Spectr Design Bureau, an important step in creating USVs is establishing effective interaction with the Russian Ministry of Defense to accelerate development and serial production. “Typically, technical groups only have a prototype without design documentation or certification,” he says. For this reason, Bratenkov proposed building a network of operators (design bureaus) in each federal district of Russia to prepare all necessary documentation and help navigate the difficult path from idea to prototype, and then from prototype to serial production. All these procedures need to be simplified, he added.
“We need some kind of support system for small businesses, which have repeatedly proven their effectiveness in development and rapid small-scale production. Private developers need support. Then the speed of development and the launch of new production will increase significantly,” the designer asserts.
Furthermore, each developed model of marine drones should have defined tasks and areas of application. Many Russian experts speak of the need to develop a range of inexpensive drones capable of covering vast distances, unlike Ukrainian USVs.
According to Dmitry Kuzyakin, General Director of the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (CIBS), our country also needs to focus on the development and creation of “third league” marine drones made of inexpensive materials and designed for specific operations but with a global range. “Roughly speaking, launching it somewhere in the Barents Sea, after a few months, it can be expected on the eastern coast of the USA,” the expert adds.
In his opinion, the maritime theater of war is unique because its distances are measured in thousands and tens of thousands of kilometers.
“We have developments of drones with a global range and autonomy of several months, capable of moving autonomously around the entire globe. Russia has such technologies, and the question is only about the demand for them and the need for their creation,” Kuzyakin emphasizes.
Autonomous Unmanned Navy is the Future of Naval Warfare
Western marine engineering companies are developing not just USVs but also unmanned systems capable of operating autonomously for extended periods. Such technologies are considered the most complex type of robotics.
“Their developments are carried out by all world leaders, with the civilian sector actively joining the competitive technological struggle. Former Western marine engineering companies, which specialized in peaceful hydrographic research and offshore resource extraction support, are becoming contractors for defense departments and engaging in dangerous underwater confrontation,” said Aleksandr Stepanov, military expert and senior researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAS).
For example, this spring, the US Marine Corps introduced a long-range unmanned surface vessel. This “semi-autonomous” strike-reconnaissance tool is equipped with loitering munitions similar to Russian Lancets. The ship is designed for long-term maneuvers in the open ocean. Moreover, it can form a “swarm” with other drones and, if necessary, take a crew on board. Clearly, by developing such technology, the Pentagon is preparing for confrontation with the powerful Chinese Navy during a potential conflict in the Pacific Ocean.
The US is also transitioning from complex heavy industrial products to mass production of lightweight and inconspicuous modular autonomous devices that can be quickly produced on 3D printers using polymers.
As an example, Stepanov cites the American US company Anduril Industries, a defense contractor for the Pentagon, which develops autonomous solutions for all environments. “In fact, a robotic arsenal is being formed within the framework of practical implementation of multi-domain operations, as well as the creation of a unified seamless digital control contour for various types of drones using artificial intelligence algorithms,” Stepanov explains.
He also notes that the United States is preparing for underwater warfare, expanding its production capacity and range of marine drones. “A sabotage submarine fleet is being formed, whose appearance is brought to maximum autonomy. In addition to classical anti-submarine warfare, the new tools’ tasks will likely include the priority goal of disrupting opponents’ maritime communications, primarily Russia and China, including sabotage on underwater telecommunication and energy infrastructure,” concludes the Russian military expert.
Conclusion
Drone warfare at sea is becoming the near-term prospect of modern naval battles. All leading countries in the world have already entered the naval drone arms race. One way or another, Russia will have to actively participate in this process, seriously modernize its Navy, and adopt modern marine unmanned systems for various purposes. The sooner Russia does this, the sooner it can ensure the safety of its maritime borders, ports, and civilian shipping.
This article was first published on Rossa Primavera News Agency’s website on December 10, 2024.
