20.09.2026, Moscow.
The closure of exports through Black Sea ports hit farmers harder than the fuel crisis.
Russian agriculture in 2026 is experiencing serious economic difficulties, and the main ones were caused by political and military reasons. Whereas the weather, unlike previous years, in the main agricultural regions was close to long-term norms, and the drought that reigned in Western Europe did not cross the borders of our country. Heavy rains in the Far East caused some, but not catastrophic, damage.
The progress of the harvest campaign
By the beginning of September, the harvesting of grain crops in Russia is nearing completion. According to the portal “Zerno.ru,” as of September 8, 70% of the sown area had been processed and 113 million tons of grain and leguminous crops had been threshed, which is 10.5 million tons more than on the same date in 2025. Wheat harvested amounted to 83.5 million tons. The yield of grain and leguminous crops is higher than last year by an average of 4.3%.
The largest grain producers remain the southern regions. In Krasnodar Krai, 11.42 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were produced, of which 9.5 million tons is wheat. The average yield is 58.2 centners per hectare. In Rostov Oblast, 13.6 million tons of grain were obtained, of which 12.2 million tons is wheat, and the average yield is 40.8 c/ha.
In many regions, grain harvesting continues. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) expects a grain harvest of 138.5 million tons, including 90 million tons of wheat. The harvesting of sunflower, sugar beet, corn, and soybeans has not yet passed the halfway mark.
Export prospects
In August, IKAR estimated Russia’s grain export potential for the 2026/2027 season at 60 million tons. In September, SovEcon is not so optimistic and forecasts grain exports at 49.4 million tons, including 41.4 million tons of wheat. SovEcon’s July forecast was 6.7 and 5.1 million tons higher. The reason for the downgrade was disruptions in the operation of ports on the Black and Azov Seas.
The ports of the Baltic republics usually provided 10–20% of exports. Over a season, their transshipment reached 2–3 million tons. In current conditions, this direction cannot be considered reliable.
Since July 27, Kazakhstan has banned the import of grain from all countries, including the EAEU, for six months. In September, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture excluded rail transit of grain and the purchase of grain by poultry farms and grain processing enterprises from the ban.
The volume of shipments along the “North–South” corridor through the Caspian ports of Astrakhan and Olya increased significantly — by 79%. Both these ports shipped 4.2 million tons of cargo in January-July, including approximately 1.9 million tons of grain. The Caspian ports will not be able to fully replace the Black Sea direction.
According to the Russian Grain Union, grain exports from Russia in August fell 3.5-fold to 1.7 million tons. Seventeen companies are involved in supplies abroad. A year ago there were 63. The number of buyers of Russian grain has also decreased. In August 2026, shipments went to 16 countries against 43 countries a year earlier. For September, SovEcon forecasts grain exports at 2 million tons.
Against the backdrop of reduced supplies from Russia and Ukraine, world grain prices have risen significantly. On the Euronext exchange, wheat is selling at $250 per ton, and corn at $270 per ton. Since July 1, wheat in the EU has risen in price by 23%, and in the US by 30%.
Domestic grain prices fell below cost
Difficulties with exports led to a decline in purchase prices within the country. According to the portal “Zerno Online,” in the European part of Russia in September, food wheat of the third class was selling at 10,150 rubles per ton, and feed wheat fell to almost 7 thousand rubles per ton.
The drop in price below cost seriously hit agricultural enterprises. Producers surveyed by the magazine “Agroinvestor” reported plans to significantly reduce sown areas under winter crops. In Voronezh Oblast, direct costs for sowing winter crops increased by 25% to 30 thousand rubles per hectare, and indirect costs already amounted to 30 thousand/ha in 2025.
Farmers in Tambov Oblast told Agroinvestor that the profitability of winter crops had been close to zero for several years. Producers are increasingly increasing the share of spring crops.
Fuel crisis in agriculture
Agricultural machinery runs primarily on diesel fuel, so interruptions in gasoline supplies affected production less than ordinary motorists. Gasoline at filling stations for agricultural enterprises is dispensed by fuel cards.
The ban on diesel fuel exports helped ensure supply for industry. True, diesel fuel still rose in price over the year — by more than 30%.
In Crimea, the fuel crisis manifested itself more strongly than in other regions, but even there the harvest campaign is proceeding successfully. By the beginning of September, Crimeans had harvested more than 1.8 million tons of grain, and the harvesting of apples and grapes is underway.
Support from the State
The Russian government is preparing support measures for agricultural producers. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev reported that among the support measures, per-hectare subsidization of winter crop sowings, extension of preferential loans and leasing, a moratorium on bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises, and possibly intervention purchases are planned.
Enterprises will be able to retain the status of agricultural producer if they are unable to sell grain. Earlier, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut reported possible intervention purchases of 1 to 3 million tons of grain in the southern regions. Patrushev also reported the suspension of export duties on grain until the end of 2026.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
