If we view the developing situation in the Middle East in terms of geoeconomics, we can see how the US is systematically blocking all shipping lanes connecting Europe to the rest of the world: the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and now incidents in the Suez Canal and Gibraltar, that is Ceuta
The tiny Spanish enclave in North Africa – Ceuta, whose population barely exceeds 85,000 – became the leading headline in world news for several days. The reason was an unprecedented avalanche-like influx of migrants from neighboring Morocco. As of the morning of August 1, the number of people trying to enter the European Union through Ceuta’s southern border had exceeded 60,000.
According to the Spanish authorities, however, more than half of the Moroccan migrants who arrived by land and sea had already been sent back with minimal difficulty.
Many of the newcomers told Western journalists that they did not really understand why they had come. Some admitted they had simply followed the crowd, while others said they had set out in search of work after believing rumors, spread by unknown parties, that Ceuta had been opened.
Mass migration into Spain, and Europe in general, is by no means a new phenomenon. The fundamental difference this time was the speed with which the incident unfolded. By the evening of July 30, the number of migrants arriving in Ceuta was estimated at 1,500. Just twenty-four hours later, that number had surpassed 60,000.
Something similar happened in Ceuta back in 2021, and in the end the situation settled down fairly quickly. However, migration flows have long since become an instrument of hybrid warfare or soft power.
This is explicitly acknowledged in publicly available strategic documents published by leading US think tanks. These documents note that under certain circumstances, such as major natural disasters or famine caused by crop failures, mass migration into more favorable regions may occur, creating significant social tensions in those previously more prosperous areas. New arrivals begin competing with local populations for resources such as food, housing, jobs, and so on. Consequently, creating and managing migration flows is an extremely powerful means of influencing entire states.
There are many examples.
The late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, during a visit to Rome in 2010 while standing beside Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, offered Europe a simple choice: pay €5 billion annually or face millions of African migrants (not only from Libya) whom he claimed he was restraining for humanitarian reasons. The heirs of the Roman Empire, which had failed to withstand the barbarian invasions in the fifth century AD, declined to play this game with Gaddafi.
Less than a year later, the Arab Spring unexpectedly erupted in Libya, overthrowing Gaddafi and leaving Libya fragmented into warring factions. Since then, Italy has received hundreds of thousands of migrants from Africa and the Middle East every year free of charge.
(cc) thierry ehrmann
Turkey has likewise periodically threatened to “set free”, that is send to Europe, the millions of Syrian refugees on its territory. To prevent this, Europe pays Turkey billions of euros in subsidies to support the refugees, since otherwise Europe would have to spend even greater sums supporting them itself.
In March 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lifted border controls near Edirne, and tens of thousands of people moved toward the Greek and Bulgarian border crossings after being conveniently transported there by Turkish buses from Turkey’s eastern borders.
In 2021, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko deliberately organized charter flights from Baghdad and Damascus, bringing “tourists” to the borders with Lithuania and Poland while setting up tent camps nearby.
In 2023, following the coup in Niger, the new authorities repealed the law prohibiting the transportation of migrants across the Sahara. Previously, Niger had received European funding, primarily from France, to guard this migration route.
In Spain itself, migrants now account for about 20% of the population, roughly 10 million people, creating significant challenges for the government. Now someone has decided to press on this especially sensitive issue.
Italy’s reaction to the Ceuta incident is especially revealing. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who began her political career in Berlusconi’s government, temporarily suspended the Schengen agreement on free movement across the border with Spain.
Italy was quickly supported by other countries, including Finland, despite its great distance from North Africa. In other words, a split emerged within the European core itself.
Could this really have happened simply because someone encouraged fifty thousand Moroccans to rush into Ceuta? Who is this mysterious actor?
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez blamed criminal gangs for the border breach, attempting to conceal what he described as the political and clearly orchestrated nature of the incident.
Meanwhile, social media has been filled with claims that the operation was organized by the Moroccan authorities with support from the United States and Israel. As evidence, users circulated videos allegedly showing Moroccan border guards opening the gates and allowing people to enter Ceuta. Naturally, no border guard would do such a thing without orders from the government. And Morocco’s authorities have considerable grievances against Sánchez.
First and foremost, Morocco fundamentally opposes the existence of the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on territory that the kingdom considers its own.
Morocco and the POLISARIO Front, which advocates the establishment of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, both claim Western Sahara, a territory that was a Spanish colony for nearly four centuries before being transferred in 1975 to the jurisdiction of Morocco and neighboring Mauritania.
(cc) AlbertoDV
In 2022, Madrid abandoned its traditional neutrality regarding Western Sahara and endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan, thereby alienating Algeria, which supports the POLISARIO Front.
However, on July 20 Sánchez visited Algeria for the first time in four years, clearly intending to repair relations.
This was completely unacceptable to Morocco, Algeria’s principal regional rival.
The main topics of Sánchez’s discussions with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune were restoring bilateral cooperation, expanding natural gas supplies, and developing green energy projects.
It therefore seems logical that Rabat responded by creating the Ceuta incident, especially since Spain’s Supreme Court had, only the previous week, prohibited the use of simplified emergency deportation procedures for illegal migrants intercepted at sea while attempting to reach Spain’s African enclaves.
In that sense, Spain itself created the conditions attracting illegal migrants.
Nevertheless, many commentators remain convinced that Morocco acted at the urging and with the support of Israel and the United States.
Pedro Sánchez’s government has consistently criticized Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Spain has repeatedly urged the European Union to review or even suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that countries pursuing diplomatic campaigns against Israel would face consequences.
Social media users also revived a 2019 post by Netanyahu’s son, Yair Netanyahu, in which he called on Arab Muslims to “liberate” what he described as occupied Arab Islamic lands in Spain, “Let’s make a deal, we won’t fund NGOs in your country calling you to give away Ceuta and Melilla, and you will *stop* funding NGOs in our country that call us to give away Judea and Samaria.”
In a sense, this has been interpreted as an indication that Israel had been laying the groundwork for the current developments and that Morocco merely took advantage of the opportunity.
But Pedro Sánchez’s greatest conflict is with US President Donald Trump.
(cc) Finnish Government
Spain flatly refused to participate in the campaign against Iran, prohibited the United States from using its military bases and even its airspace, greatly angering “Grandpa Donnie.”
Several days after the war with Iran began, Trump declared that the United States intended to sever all trade relations with Spain after Madrid refused to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, as required under NATO’s new agreements.
On April 17–18, Barcelona hosted a conference of world left-wing leaders at Sánchez’s initiative. The purpose was to formulate a common response to the growing influence of the far right and populists, that is Trump and his allies in Europe and Latin America.
The meeting brought together numerous left-wing politicians from around the world, including the presidents of Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Cyril Ramaphosa, and Claudia Sheinbaum.
It is worth noting that on exactly the same day, April 17, Morocco and the United States renewed and extended their military cooperation roadmap through 2036.
This is a significant point in the existing geoeconomic landscape.
Then, on July 11, during the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump again harshly criticized Madrid, declaring, “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. I don’t want anything to do with Spain.”
In other words, Sánchez and Trump are bitter political enemies.
For the United States, participating in any operation that weakens Sánchez’s political position would be entirely welcome.
The US reaction to the Ceuta incident is likewise revealing.
The US State Department stated that the surge of illegal migration into Ceuta was a direct consequence of Madrid’s irresponsible policies.
Trump called the situation in Ceuta a “catastrophe.”
He also argued that the United States could face an even worse crisis if US Democrats or, as he calls them, Communists won future elections. To Trump, US Democratic left and its European counterparts are essentially one and the same.
In addition, on July 31 the German newspaper Handelsblatt, citing sources in Washington, reported that the United States might withdraw approximately 2,000 troops from Spain because of Madrid’s refusal to provide bases for operations against Iran.
But let us return to Morocco.
On July 28, Donald Trump publicly praised the Moroccan king and announced his intention to visit the country and travel along a newly opened highway named after him.
Yet the key issue is something else.
Ceuta, which Morocco claims as its own, is located at one of the strategic points through which Europe controls the Strait of Gibraltar, one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.
If we view the developing situation in the Middle East in terms of geoeconomics, we can see how the US is systematically blocking all shipping lanes connecting Europe to the rest of the world: the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and now incidents in the Suez Canal and Gibraltar.
Thus, the incident in Ceuta is merely a preliminary probing attack..
Spain has managed to knock this one back. For now.
But heavier attacks are likely to follow.
And very soon.
This is a translation of an article by Maksim Karev, first published on Rossa Primavera News Agency web site.
