01.06.2026, Moscow.
One of the most important aspects of Russian-Turkish relations for Russia is that the second most significant ethnic group in the country after ethnic Russians is the Turkic ethnic group. As long as this ethnic group remains “minimally loyal” to Russia, the country must act in such a way as to prevent any interethnic conflict, political scientist, philosopher, and the leader of the Essence of Time movement Sergey Kurginyan stated on May 15 during the Conversation with a Sage program on the Zvezda radio channel.
The political scientist emphasized that “Russia must foster internal friendship and build deep mutual relationships“, and “act in such a way as to prevent any interethnic conflict.” However, Russia must take very seriously the possibility that if such a conflict does emerge, it would be a major one, he warned.
“When uniting Turkic states, ‘Great Turan’, ‘Neo-Ottomanism’ are being discussed, this implies that certain forces are laying claims – allegedly rhetorically – to control over the Turkic population in Russia, and in that sense – to a certain degree – call into question Russia’s sovereignty.”
“If Russia is on friendly terms with these forces, it might say: ‘Oh, it does not matter – you can control this group, we can control it too…’ But if this force is Neo-Ottomanism and all that, then that means the territories inhabited by all these Turkic or Turanian peoples are ultimately supposed to become part of a great, restored Ottoman or some other empire,” Sergey Kurginyan noted.
The political scientist underscored that Russia cannot afford to ever lose sight of this strategic reality – particularly in light of current circumstances, specifically Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
One cannot ignore the significance of what is constantly being voiced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. When “Neo-Ottomanism” is regularly mentioned, sooner or later, Neo-Ottomanism will be implemented either in full or partially; “sooner or later, these words will materialize into something,” Kurginyan believes.
“This does not mean that Russia should expend any effort on this at a moment when it can only afford to focus its efforts in a single direction, which is Ukraine. This does not mean that Russia should attach decisive importance to this matter. However, it would be wrong to assign it zero importance,” the political analyst asserts.
He emphasized that Russia’s current objective is to win the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at any cost; this is an “existential, a fateful task, and Russia cannot afford to be engaged in any other conflicts.”
“Turkey is relatively friendly toward Russia, that is great; it takes such a flexible stance cooperating both with Ukraine and Russia. It is not against Russia; it is resolving certain pragmatic issues with Russia – “South Stream” or something else – that is great. It is not declaring war against Russia, it is great. The most practical aspect lies in this,” the political analyst notes.
He noted that when representatives of the Russian elite today speak of the Russo-Turkish wars merely as historical facts left in the past, it would be prudent to recall a key principle of decision-making theory: “the probability of an outcome is multiplied by its potential danger.”
“They say: ‘Oh, so what if there were Russo-Turkish wars in the past?’… ‘So what’ indeed – but let us pray that they do not recur. Let us pray that, by that time, we have grown strong. Let us pray that we have resolved the Ukrainian problem. But what if we haven’t? I must put forward even an improbable scenario if it is dangerous,” concluded the leader of the Essence of Time movement.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
