09.05.2026, Italy.
Trump and Meloni’s quarrel could become the beginning of a revision of security guarantees in Europe.
The geopolitical landscape of Europe is on the verge of major changes. The era of unconditional American security guarantees, which the Old World has grown accustomed to over the decades following the end of the Cold War, may come to an end. Washington’s harsh “America first” rhetoric is threatening the established architecture of NATO. According to the Italian news agency ANSA, following the high-profile decision to withdraw thousands of American troops from Germany, Italy and Spain have also come under the close scrutiny of US President Donald Trump.
For Rome, the implementation of such a scenario means not just a technical redeployment of allied troops, but a major challenge to national security and a deep crisis in relations with its main overseas partner. And while previously the main US complaints were about financial issues, today the catalyst for a possible rupture has become an open conflict between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni over the war in the Middle East.
To fully assess the scale of the possible consequences, it is necessary to evaluate how deeply US military presence is integrated into Italy’s defense structure. Today, between 12,000 and 13,000 American soldiers, officers, and technical personnel are permanently stationed on the Apennine Peninsula and Sicily. In terms of the size of the American contingent, Italy is one of the key strongholds of the Pentagon in Europe, second only to Germany. The American presence strengthens the overall air and missile defense system of NATO on the southern flank. Independently replacing this entire complex of capabilities would require Rome and its European allies many years and large investments.
The United States operates a number of critically important facilities here. First, there is Aviano Air Base in the north of the country, which hosts F-16 fighter jets and, according to military experts, stores tactical nuclear weapons. Second, there is Vicenza Base (Caserma Ederle), serving as the headquarters of the US Army garrison in Southern Europe. The strategic hub of Camp Darby near Livorno is one of the largest logistics centers and weapons depots of the US Army abroad. Finally, the naval air station at Sigonella in Sicily is de facto the “eyes and ears” of NATO in the Mediterranean, playing a vital role in operations in the Middle East and North Africa. The command of the US Sixth Fleet is also based in Naples. The withdrawal or even partial reduction of these forces would create a gaping hole in the southern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Until the spring of 2026, Giorgia Meloni was considered one of the main allies of American conservatives in Europe. However, in April, relations sharply deteriorated. The trigger was the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which Italy categorically refused to support.
The crisis unfolded on several fronts at once and was accompanied by unprecedentedly harsh rhetoric, which is completely unacceptable to Trump with his ego:
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Italy’s denial of access to bases. According to Corriere della Sera, Rome refused American bombers permission to transit through the Sigonella base before their deployment to the Middle East. The Italian side argued that landing aircraft carrying weapons required parliamentary approval, for which the US left no time.
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Defense of the Vatican. Trump publicly attacked Pope Leo XIV, calling him “weak” for his calls for a peaceful resolution of the Middle East conflict. In response, Meloni harshly condemned the US president’s words, calling them unacceptable and expressing full solidarity with the pontiff.
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Suspension of pacts with Israel. Rome froze the defense agreement with Israel, demonstratively distancing itself from military escalation.
Washington’s response was not long in coming. In an interview with the Italian press, Trump became personal, insulting Meloni: “I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong. Iran would blow up Italy in two minutes if it had the chance.“
Later, on his Truth Social network, Donald Trump delivered a final verdict on allied commitments: “Italy did not come to our aid, and we will not come to its aid.“
Rome’s Middle Eastern démarche fell on the fertile ground of Trump’s long-standing dissatisfaction with fiscal discipline in NATO. Washington’s basic requirement — to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense — was chronically unmet by Italy, which hovered around 1.4–1.5%. Only recently, largely by revising accounting methods, did Rome reach the threshold of 2%, remaining among the allies that barely meet the former NATO minimum.
In the transactional logic of the White House, the picture is clear: Italy not only tries to save on its own security at the expense of American taxpayers, but also, at a critical moment, refuses to show loyalty by blocking the use of bases. For the Trump administration, this is sufficient political reason to threaten to reduce the contingent, punishing a recalcitrant ally.
For the Italian prime minister, the situation has turned into a diplomatic trap. On the one hand, a rupture with the US threatens the country’s basic security. On the other hand, Meloni is constrained by strict domestic political limits.
In Italy, anti-war sentiment has traditionally been strong. Directly dragging the country into a war with Iran would be political suicide for the government against the backdrop of an already difficult economic situation. Furthermore, Italian industry is critically dependent on energy supplies from the Middle East region. As Trump bluntly stated, Rome does not want to risk oil, believing the US will do all the work on its own. Defending the Pope was also the only correct move for Meloni in a Catholic country where the pontiff’s authority carries enormous weight.
If Donald Trump’s threats move into the practical realm, the consequences will extend far beyond the Apennines. The current situation shows how much the European security model depends on the political will of Washington. For Rome, the US bases were part of a system of logistics, intelligence, air support, and allied planning that cannot be quickly replaced by its own forces.
Therefore, a possible withdrawal of American troops could be a signal to the entire European Union: the former automaticity of American guarantees no longer works unconditionally. European countries will have to accelerate the creation of their own defense infrastructure, expand military budgets, and take on those functions that the US provided for decades. Whether a decision to withdraw troops will be reached will be shown in the coming weeks.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
