Will US-Israel war against Iran delay the prospect of military conflict between Europe and Russia?

23.03.2026, Moscow.

Ambitious plans by European countries to purchase US weapons, developed prior to the conflict with Iran, can no longer be implemented in the short term, according to Rossa Primavera News Agency Military Desk.

Earlier statements made at the level of the European Parliament and NATO about the possibility of a war with Russia within the next three years were based on plans for the accelerated militarization of European countries. At a meeting held in Berlin in December, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Europe must prepare for a “for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.”

In August 2025, the British newspaper Financial Times, based on images of 150 facilities belonging to 37 European defense companies, reported that European arms factories were expanding three times faster than in peacetime. Rearmament has been taking place under the EU program Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), for which €500 million has already been allocated. An additional €1.5 billion was also planned for a similar program aimed at expanding production.

At the same time, supplies of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine were often drawn from stockpiles in Europe under US guarantees that these reserves would later be replenished through American production. In February 2026, Euractiv, citing documents and NATO diplomats, reported that the United States was pressuring European allies to increase purchases of US weapons.

However, the situation surrounding rearmament plans has been complicated by the conflict in Iran, which has required NATO countries to urgently supply missiles for air defense systems and ammunition for airstrikes.

On March 20, Armin Papperger, CEO of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, stated that the Western coalition had virtually run out of air defense missiles. According to Papperger, global demand for air defense systems and missiles far exceeds manufacturers’ capabilities.

In effect, this means that rearmament plans will need to be adjusted both in terms of cost, taking into account rising energy prices, and in terms of volume, given the increasing estimates of the number of air defense systems, missiles, and drones required for a conflict with a strong opponent. This, in turn, suggests that Europe is unlikely to meet the three-year timeline for preparing for a large-scale war.

Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency