01.03.2026, Tehran.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could trigger a sharp rise in oil prices and intensify inflationary pressure in the global economy, Rossa Primavera News Agency Economical Desk wrote on March 1.
About 20 million barrels of oil pass daily through the strategic strait separating the Iranian coast from the Arabian Peninsula. This volume accounts for roughly 20% of global oil exports and 30% of all seaborne supplies.
Markets have already reacted to the unfolding events. Brent crude futures on the Moscow Exchange have surged above $75 per barrel, while gold and silver are showing strong gains as traditional “safe havens” for capital during periods of uncertainty.
According to various expert estimates, if the blockade is prolonged, Brent could surpass the $100 per barrel mark and, in extreme scenarios, reach $110–$130. There are even more radical forecasts: Oxford Economics predicts that even a week-long complete halt of transit through the strait could push oil prices up to $140.
An increase in oil prices would directly fuel inflation in global economies, primarily through higher fuel, energy, and transportation costs. Rising energy prices are almost always accompanied by growing inflationary pressure on consumer markets: gasoline, logistics and production tariffs, and supply chains. In countries highly dependent on energy imports, this could place additional strain on consumer prices and household budgets.
Asian importers – China, India, Japan, and South Korea – are the most vulnerable, as they receive up to two-thirds of the oil flows passing through Hormuz. For them, a sharp price spike would be compounded by the risk of currency depreciation and a stronger US dollar, in which energy resources are paid. The United States, by contrast, is partially shielded by its own production and strategic reserves, meaning the shock to the US economy would likely be relatively milder than for Europe and especially emerging markets.
On February 28, following the start of an Israeli-US war against Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps decided to close the Strait of Hormuz unofficially. Ships have already begun receiving notices prohibiting passage through the strait.
