This question is far from a technical issue…
The resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the United States and Russia will finally bury the system of arms-control treaties. The tests will become a point of no return, after which any negotiations on strategic stability will become practically impossible. In addition, if Russia and the United States resume testing, other nuclear powers such as China, the United Kingdom, and France may consider conducting their own tests to verify and demonstrate the reliability of their arsenals.
At the end of October, US President Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social account that Washington intends to resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis and instructed the Department of War to begin this process immediately. This statement caused a broad public reaction and required official clarification; however, according to reports, representatives of the White House and the US State Department avoided giving a substantive response to inquiries from the Russian side.
In response, the Russian leadership initiated an urgent discussion of this issue at a meeting of the Security Council. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, noting that the United States has been consistently withdrawing from arms-control treaties, proposed that Vladimir Putin immediately begin preparations for full-scale nuclear testing at the Novaya Zemlya test site.
The President of Russia instructed the relevant ministries to analyze the situation and submit proposals on a possible start of preparatory work. It is emphasized that a decision to begin preparatory work has not yet been made, and Russia continues to observe its obligations under the CTBT.
The New START Treaty (START III) between Moscow and Washington expires in February 2026, and no negotiations on its extension are taking place. Most likely, other nuclear powers will not stay on the sidelines, which will lead the world to an extremely dangerous and unstable situation.
Russia and the United States together possess approximately 90% of all nuclear weapons. If a new agreement on limiting their arsenals is not reached, then after the expiration of the bilateral Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START III) in February 2026, the number of warheads deployed on strategic missiles will likely increase.
At present, almost all nine states possessing nuclear weapons — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel — continue intensive nuclear modernization programs, improving existing systems and adding new ones.
According to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China currently has at least 600 nuclear warheads. China’s nuclear arsenal has been growing faster than that of any other country — by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023. By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing the construction of about 350 new ICBM silos at three large desert sites in the north of the country and three mountainous regions in the east.
Depending on how China decides to structure its armed forces, by the end of the decade it could have no fewer intercontinental ballistic missiles than Russia or the United States. However, even if by 2035 China reaches its maximum projected number of 1,500 warheads, this will still amount to only one-third of the current nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States.
India continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and develop new types of delivery systems. Pakistan is also developing new delivery systems and accumulating fissile materials, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal may increase over the next decade. The armed conflict that broke out between these countries in early 2025, under unfavorable circumstances (strikes on military infrastructure related to nuclear weapons, disinformation from third parties), could have led to an escalation from a conventional conflict into a nuclear one.
France, the United Kingdom, and North Korea continue implementing their nuclear programs. Israel, although it does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal. In 2024 it conducted tests of a rocket engine installation that may be linked to the Jericho family of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Israel also appears to be upgrading its plutonium-producing reactor in Dimona.
All these facts indicate that the world is standing at the threshold of a new round of the arms race — one that carries far more risks and uncertainty than the previous one. The rapid development and application of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, space-based systems, missile defense, and quantum technologies are radically changing the understanding of nuclear potential, deterrence, and defense, thereby creating potential sources of instability and increasing the risk of accidental escalation. Furthermore, given the new technologies and variables, it will be impossible to determine who is ahead in the new arms race.
Thus, the resumption of nuclear testing is not merely a technical issue. It is an extremely powerful political signal that could destroy the fragile architecture of international security and launch an escalation spiral that would be almost impossible to control. The consequences of such a development would be catastrophic for all humanity.
This is a translation of the article by Larisa Besidina first published on Rossa Primavera News Agency‘s website.
