Certain forces in the West worry that the Czech Republic may become a “headache for the EU.” But Russia should not expect the Czech Republic to become its friend
On October 3–4, parliamentary elections were held in the Czech Republic to elect members of the lower house. Voter turnout of 68.95% was fairly high. According to the results announced on October 5, the ANO movement (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, who is well known for his criticism of military aid to Ukraine, won the elections.
Election results
A total of 1,940,507 voters cast their ballots for ANO, representing 34.51% of the vote. The party won 80 out of 200 seats.
Six political forces entered the lower house. The SPOLU (Together) coalition, headed by the incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala came in second place with 23.36% or 52 seats. Third came the STAN (Mayors and Independents) movement with 11.23% and 22 seats. The Czech Pirate Party received 8.97% of the vote and 22 seats; SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) got 7.78% and 15 seats. The Motorists’ Movement won 6.77% and 13 seats. Another 20 political groups took part in the election but failed to clear the 5% threshold.
As a result, ANO’s representation in the lower house increased by eight seats, while the Czech Pirate Party gained 14 more MPs. SPOLU lost 19 seats, STAN lost 11, and SPD lost five.
Despite ANO’s victory, it failed to secure an outright majority. Nevertheless, Babiš announced his intention to form a single-party government.
“We will negotiate with SPD and the Motorists’ Movement and aim to form a one-party government led by ANO,” he said.
If an alliance with SPD and the Motorists’ Movement is formed, ANO would control 108 seats in parliament. This is sufficient, as Babiš needs 101 votes to form a new government.
On October 5, Babiš met with Czech President Petr Pavel. After the meeting, he said, “I promised to propose to the president a solution [regarding government formation – Rossa Primavera News Agency] that will comply with Czech and European law.”
Who is Andrej Babiš?
Andrej Babiš is 71 years old. He served as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic from December 2017 to November 2021. Before that, he was Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister.
Babiš is a billionaire and one of the five richest people in the country. He owns Agrofert, the largest transnational agro-industrial holding in Central and Eastern Europe, which unites over 250 companies in 18 countries. According to Forbes, as of January 2023 his fortune was estimated at $4.2 billion.
Babiš founded the ANO party in 2011, declaring its goal to be the fight against corruption and other flaws in Czech politics and economics. In the 2013 elections, ANO won 18.65% of the vote and 47 seats, and in 2017 it came in first, with 29.64% of the vote and 78 seats.
In April 2018 and June 2019, protests were held in the Czech Republic demanding Babiš’s resignation. He was accused of lying, corruption, abuse of power, and allowing mafia influence in government.
In the 2021 parliamentary elections, the SPOLU coalition (which unites the Civic Democratic Party, the Christian Democratic Movement, and the TOP movement) emerged victorious with 27.79% of the vote. ANO followed closely behind with 27.12%. A coalition government was formed, led by Petr Fiala. On November 11, 2021, Babiš’s outgoing government officially resigned.
After stepping down, Babiš was accused in a financial fraud case involving the misuse of EU funds by Stork’s Nest, a company linked to him. However, in January 2023, the court found him not guilty.
In his campaign, Andrej Babiš placed great emphasis on domestic policy. He promised to care for the Czech population by raising wages and pensions, increasing social spending, and introducing tax breaks for students and young families. At the same time, Babiš pledged to oppose the EU migration pact and the Green Deal.
Regarding support for Ukraine, Babiš sharply criticized the “Czech initiative” to supply Kiev with ammunition. He also spoke harshly about Ukraine’s possible EU membership, stressing that the country is not yet ready and must first end the war.
Western media reaction to ANO’s victory
ANO’s victory alarmed Western media, which express concerns about a possible Czech shift away from the pan-European course, including support for Kiev.
The New York Times recalls that Babiš has been called the “Czech Trump,” and writes, “The 71-year-old Mr. Babis is more interested in taking a transactional approach with the European Union than in forging sweeping foreign policies. And like Mr. Trump, he is expected to try to foist support for Ukraine onto European partners rather than share the load.”
The German newspaper Bild emphasizes that Babiš built his campaign on disillusionment with the war. The newspaper highlights Babiš’s pledge to reduce financial aid to Ukraine, noting his slogan, “The Czech Republic must think of itself first.”
The British newspaper The Guardian, even before the results were announced, noted the EU’s close attention to the Czech elections. It stressed that Brussels “is nervously considering the possibility of a third anti-EU agitator in central Europe alongside Hungary and Slovakia.”
Politico points out that Babiš expressed his intention to withdraw from the ammunition-supply initiative to Kiev, oppose increased NATO military spending, and resist the Green Deal promoted by the European Commission.
Reuters also believes Babiš may form a government that will reduce support for Kiev. The agency notes that his campaign promises of higher wages and pensions “resonated with many Czechs who have seen their real incomes plunge in recent years as the country tackled soaring inflation.”
Within the Czech Republic itself, the election results alarmed liberal media. The liberal newspaper Deník N called the winning MPs “pro-Russian sympathizers” and “horsemen of the apocalypse.”
What does Babiš’s victory mean for Russia?
Although there are voices in the West characterizing Babiš as a friend of Moscow, in reality, this is hardly the case. The politician is not oriented toward Russia, he is focused on the domestic problems of the Czech Republic, at least according to his pre-election rhetoric. His criticism of the country’s military spending on aid to Ukraine does not make him a friend of the Kremlin.
Russian-Czech relations deteriorated in 2021, precisely when Babiš was prime minister. At that time, he declared that Russia was allegedly responsible for the explosions at ammunition depots in Vrbětice that occurred in 2014. Following this accusation, Prague expelled 18 Russian diplomats, and in response, Russia declared 20 employees of the Czech embassy persona non grata.
As for the possibility of Babiš aligning himself with the anti-European course pursued by the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, there is currently no certainty on that issue. The Czech Republic benefits from EU funds, and in this regard, it would not be advantageous for Babiš to engage in sharp confrontation with Brussels. Moreover, his considerations as a pragmatic major European businessman may also come into play.
During debates, Babiš repeatedly stated that he would never consider withdrawing the country from the EU or NATO. He also ruled out any turn rapprochement with Russia.
“We will never drag the Czech Republic to the East. I absolutely rule that out,” he emphasized at a campaign rally in Kladno.
When Poland claimed that Russian drones had allegedly violated its airspace, Babiš asserted that the Czech Republic should assist Poland in the event of the activation of Article 5 of NATO.
It is also worth noting the ambivalence of Babiš’s criticism of the “Czech initiative” to purchase ammunition for the Ukrainian army from third countries. The politician claimed that much money was being embezzled under this program and suggested that attention should be paid to its transparency. He also argued that the program was very costly for taxpayers.
“We don’t have money for our own people. Our program is aimed at improving the lives of Czech citizens… We are not in Ukraine,” he said during a debate on CNN Prima News.
At the same time, Babiš did not claim that Ukraine should be denied assistance. He believes that the ammunition supply program for Kiev should be organized by NATO, not by the Czech Republic.
Nevertheless, Babiš’s return to power can be viewed as positive for Russia. Although he is by no means a “Kremlin’s friend,” as some Western media try to portray him, under his leadership the Czech Republic may reduce its military assistance to the Kiev regime. That, in itself, would be a good outcome. However, one should hardly expect any significant warming of Russian-Czech relations.
This is a translation of the article by Inna Astafurova first published on Rossa Primavera News Agency‘s web site.
