Israel’s attack on Iran sparks panic on Energy markets. There are even more serious concerns
On the night of June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran.
Tel Aviv targeted Iran’s nuclear, military, and civilian facilities in the cities of Isfahan, Tabriz, Ilam, Lorestan, Borujerd, Qom, Arak, Urmia, Qasr-e Shirin, Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Shiraz.
Consequences of the large-scale military operation against Iran so far:
— Among the 78 Iranians killed on Friday were military personnel, scientists, and civilians; 320 people were injured;
— The Chief of the General Staff of Iran, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, and several senior commanders were killed, along with nine nuclear scientists;
— Tehran carried out a retaliatory strike as part of Operation “True Promise 3,” resulting in two deaths and “about 40” injuries in Israel;
— Iran states that negotiations with the US are “pointless,” though it has not yet decided to withdraw from talks;
— Khamenei appointed new military leadership following the assassination of the top command;
— Radiation levels in the Natanz area of Iran remain “unchanged”;
— There is “limited damage” to nuclear facilities in Fordow and Isfahan.
What do experts from various countries think about the conflict’s development?
Saudi Arabia’s leading news channel Al Jazeera, citing a US official, reported that the Israel-Iran confrontation could last an entire week.
Turkey’s largest newspaper Hürriyet presents the opinion of Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın, a professor at Yeditepe University’s Faculty of Law. He sees the Iran-Israel conflict as the beginning of a struggle with extremely significant and critical consequences that will alter the balance of power in the Middle East.
He believes Iran’s greatest advantage in the conflict is its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade route, as it did during the 1980 war. “To do this, Iran will lay mines in the strait, and this mine warfare will escalate the situation in the Middle East. It will add a new dimension to trade wars. With oil prices potentially rising to $200 per barrel,” Caşın explained.
“Although Israel has conducted secret operations against Iran’s nuclear facilities and scientists for years, these recent attacks — using jet aircraft, infiltrated agents, and parts of missiles and UAVs smuggled into the country — mark a ‘new level’,” the article notes.
Indeed, Israel’s nighttime airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites shocked global energy markets, causing a surge in the entire forward curve of crude oil prices — most sharply at the starting segment — as traders prepare for potential supply disruptions.
In a June 12 note, JPMorgan warned that in a worst-case scenario, oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel. Back in 2022, when oil exceeded $100 per barrel, inflation and gasoline prices severely impacted President Joe Biden’s approval ratings.
“The relative calm seen in the oil market in 2025 is now a thing of the past. The Israeli attack on Iran, which holds the third-largest crude oil reserves in the world, sparked panic: not so much due to actual damage — Tehran claims zero damage to oil wells and refineries — but due to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a quarter of the world’s oil barrels pass,” writes Ignacio Fariza for El País.
It is already known that the Israeli attacks did not affect Iran’s oil infrastructure — the third-largest producer in OPEC. Thus, the key question is how Tehran will respond, Fariza believes.
“If Iran responds cautiously, as in previous cases, energy markets will calm down,” said Dr. Jorge León, Vice President and Head of Oil Analysis at the Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy, in an interview with El País.
However, if Iran chooses a different scenario—attacking other energy infrastructure in the region, as it did in 2019 in Saudi Arabia, or going further by closing the Strait of Hormuz—it would be the worst outcome for the energy market.
Japan’s leading newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun wrote about fear on the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the Israel-Iran conflict. On the morning of June 13, the Nikkei index (225 items) dropped more than 600 yen (-8%).
Japan’s major media outlets are closely following the Israel-Iran conflict. The national newspaper The Asahi Shimbun begins the timeline of this phase of the conflict with Iran’s rejection of an IAEA resolution, which was prompted by Iran’s creation of a new uranium enrichment facility.
China’s largest media portal, in an article about the reasons behind the attack, quotes Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the Chinese Academy of Contemporary International Relations, “This time, the scale of the attack is very large, and nuclear facilities are definitely a vital part of Iran’s national security and a symbol of Iranian national dignity. Therefore, Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities this time has essentially touched on Iran’s core interests.”
According to the Chinese expert, Iran “may withdraw from ongoing nuclear negotiations with the United States, and on the other hand, it may completely withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
The Russian publication Lenta.ru cites the opinion of military expert and retired Navy Captain Vasily Dandykin on the likelihood of a nuclear conflict.
“I don’t think it will come to the use of nuclear forces. Conventional weapons will be used instead, which, though non-radioactive, have the same destructive power as tactical nuclear weapons. We demonstrated this when we used the ‘Oreshnik.’ I believe they have something similar,” Dandykin noted.
According to Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya, Israel’s actions are pushing the region toward a large-scale nuclear disaster and bringing it to the brink of full-scale war.
He pointed out serious concerns about possible radiological consequences from the damage to nuclear facilities.
Experts across various countries are closely monitoring the situation, particularly regarding the economy and nuclear weapons use. One thing is clear — the conflict has escalated to a new level, and the military phase will not end in the coming days.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
