For the war of attrition in Ukraine, not only the size of the mobilization base is important, but also how well the army is equipped, the leader of the Essence of Time movement, philosopher and political scientist Sergey Kurginyan said on September 8 on the program To the Point of the BelTA Belarusian agency.
“I call this a positional war strategy or a war of attrition. <…> I think that the Russians could take Kharkov or southern Ukraine at some expense. They could. But that expense was found unacceptable. And then they said, ‘Well, what’s the matter? Let them start their offensive. For an offensive, they need a 1 to 3 numerical superiority. So let us do everything we can,‘” Kurginyan said.
In his opinion, a war of attrition has its parameters such as mobilization base.
“The Russians do not want a mobilization. Ukraine is conducting a total mobilization. The Russians do not want it. And there are many reasons why. The situation in the domestic policy. This consumerism etc. And also the lack of infrastructure for the deployment of the accumulated resources. However, Russia’s actual mobilization base is 5-6 times larger,” the political scientist noted.
Kurginyan noted that although Russia’s mobilization base is greater, only part of it has been used, while Ukraine uses all its mobilization base. “This is why they outnumber us, and this has always been a concern for me. From the very beginning of this operation I asked what limits our contingent,” the political scientist stressed.
Kurginyan also discussed the way the war of attrition can continue. In his opinion, in terms of mobilization base, it is clear who will be exhausted first.
“Ukraine will be exhausted. Literally. I do not even want to discuss this sad scenario, but this is the actual loss of 5 million adult men. And a rather slow reaccumulation of this cannon fodder available for mobilization,” Kurginyan said.
Further, there is the economic issue, the political scientist said. The Russian economy is 50 times stronger than the Ukrainian one, but Ukraine today receives support from the entire West.
“And the point is how fast will Russia develop its defense industry, and how fast the West will do it. The latter is lazy etc. It can do it. We know how America can develop its defense industry as it took place under Roosevelt etc. Whether it will do it or not is a different question. Therefore, the balance of these parameters is very important, because even if you have a greater mobilization base and you decide to use it and you can use it according to the overall circumstances, you also need to have a huge number of weapons,” Kurginyan said.
According to the political scientist, we must understand that the number of people involved in combat do not make any difference themselves; their number multiplied by the military power is what matters. Even if one side has a hundred million with shovel handles against the other side with rapid-fire weapons then this hundred million will be dead, Kurginyan noted.
“This means we need that arms race which is in fact the only thing that can boost our economy, and which has always been something to terrify us,” the political scientist said.
Kurginyan added that in terms of the overall parameters now we have a chance that Ukraine will lose the war of attrition, and if it does then the West will abandon it, and thus a number of political problems with Ukraine will be resolved.
“We will lose a lot during this war, but if this is a war of attrition, then we will suffer smaller losses in our war against guerrillas because there will be none left,” Kurginyan concluded.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency