For the first time in more than half a century, Russia and the USA find themselves in a situation where they have no current nuclear arms reduction treaty.
In his address to the Russian Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III).
The President said that he was talking about suspension, not withdrawal from the agreement.
Motivation
The West is directly involved in Kiev’s attempts to strike Russian strategic air bases. There are statements from the West about the need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, the president noted.
At the same time, the USA demands that its representatives gain access to the Russian defense nuclear facilities. Washington itself does not allow Moscow to conduct full-fledged inspections at its facilities.
“I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Treaty,” the leader of state outlined the country’s reaction to the US actions.
Putin recalled that not only the United States has nuclear weapons, but also such NATO countries as France and the UK, but their forces are not covered by the treaty. He said that to resume Russia’s participation in the treaty it would be necessary to take into account the joint arsenal of the alliance.
The president said that the Russian leadership was aware of the US intention to test nuclear weapons. He warned that if this happens, Moscow will also test its nuclear weapons. Putin stressed that Russia would not be the first to take such a step.
History of strategic arms treaties
The START III treaty was signed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama in Prague on April 8, 2010. It was the seventh treaty between the USSR/Russia and the United States concerning the limitation of strategic nuclear forces.
The first, the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I), was signed in 1972. It froze the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers for each at existing levels. The second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) of 1979 imposed new limitations.
The third treaty was the indefinite Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed in 1987, which banned the development and deployment of missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 km. Washington announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2019. Moscow responded by announcing the suspension of the agreement.
In 1991, the USSR and the United States signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I). It imposed a schedule for gradually limiting the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers on alert. Its implementation was declared in 2022.
In 1993, Russia signed a second Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II) with the United States, which provided for reducing the number of warheads by 2003. The treaty was ratified by the Russian State Duma in 1999, but the USA never ratified it. After the USA’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in June 2002, Moscow announced the end of START II.
Also in 2002, several months after the execution of START I, Russia and the United States signed a Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) that imposed additional limits in this sphere. This document was the sixth treaty in a row.
In 2009, as START I ended, Russia and the US were actively discussing a new deal. Medvedev’s meeting with Obama resulted in the signing of the third Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-III). This document was a logical continuation of START.
New START
The treaty limited the number of deployed missiles and bombers to 700 and the number of nuclear warheads to 1,550. However, the treaty does not apply to warheads that are in storage. The parties also pledged to share information with each other on the launch of strategic missiles and received the right to conduct inspections at strategic facilities.
At the time of the signing, Russia was not violating the established threshold for deployed missiles and bombers and was significantly exceeding warhead limits. The USA nuclear forces exceeded both limits.
The treaty was signed for 10 years and included the possibility of extension by mutual agreement of the parties for another 5 years. In January 2021, the Russian parliament approved the agreement extension, and President Putin signed the corresponding law. The treaty was extended until February 5, 2026.
The text of the treaty describes only the procedure for withdrawal from it. The document states that a party may terminate the treaty if it considers that exceptional circumstances relating to the content of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests.
The other party must be notified of these exceptional reasons to withdraw from the contract. The contract terminates three months after receipt of such notice.
There is no indication in the agreement that it can be suspended, so it is not yet clear exactly how the president’s statement will be legally handled.
Conclusions
For the first time in more than half a century, Russia and the USA find themselves in a situation where they have no current nuclear arms reduction treaty. This fact alone does not indicate that both sides will immediately begin to build up their deployed nuclear weapons.
The suspension of the treaty should be seen as symbolic evidence of the sharply increased level of strategic tension between the two powers and as a warning to the USA not to test nuclear weapons.
