30.10.2021, Moscow.
Forecasting is becoming complicated as global instability is growing, said philosopher, political scientist, the leader of the Essence of Time movement Sergey Kurginyan in the Meaning of the Game program released on October 24 on the movement’s YouTube video channel.
According to Kurginyan, a large number of turbulent areas is one of the factors that makes global forecasting difficult. As an example, he pointed to the events unfolding around Taiwan as well as Australia’s rearmament.
“When there are many areas with such turbulence, they begin to gather into certain clusters, or super-turbulence. Then, everything becomes more difficult to forecast, because instead of linear stochastic, or probabilistic forecasting methods, one has to use nonlinear stochastic methods, and there (without going into greater details), a large number of completely new scientific problems emerge,” – explained the political scientist.
The second factor that complicates forecasting is the peculiarity of studying the current world processes, believes Kurginyan. This peculiarity lies in the fact that the relationship between the researcher and the object of the research is not a classical actor-to-object situation, it is a actor-to-actor situation. That is, the object reacts to being researched.
“Let’s say that you are an actor yourself, but what you are investigating is also an actor. And it understands that you are researching it. And it does everything possible to deceive you. In addition, the object of your research also possesses strange qualities. Under these circumstances – I am not saying that the forecast is impossible – but these are completely different forecasts than what is customary in typically more or less linear, non-turbulent, non-developing situations,” explained philosopher.
On October 18, the US Navy missile destroyer USS Dewey and the Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Winnipeg made a passage through the Taiwan Strait. Throughout the entire time, the Chinese military and naval forces monitored and escorted the US destroyer and Canadian frigate.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
