11.06.2026, Berlin.
Germany’s economy will begin to recover only if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened this summer, according to data from the Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH) published on June 11 by the newspaper Oldenburger Onlinezeitung.
According to the report, the researchers’ analysis indicates that a continued closure of the strait would leave Germany facing economic stagnation throughout 2026 at best.
Experts believe that in such a scenario, crude oil prices would rise significantly, leading to higher inflation and interest rates. German exports would also be expected to decline.
However, if tensions in the Persian Gulf subside and energy prices do not continue to increase, the institute believes that Germany’s economic recovery could begin in 2026. Under this scenario, economic output is expected to grow by 0.9% both this year and next year. Similar growth rates are forecast for eastern Germany as well.
In March, IWH researchers were still forecasting German economic growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 1% in 2027.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
