Not everyone in the region will welcome this outcome, which means that the current US “peace agreement” may ultimately result in even more war
On the night of June 15, US President Donald Trump announced on the social network Truth Social that the United States and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding. The US leader also announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade of Iranian ports.
On June 14, Donald Trump celebrated his 80th birthday and planned to sign a memorandum with Iran on that day. However, events unfolded in such a way that the signing of the document was repeatedly postponed, and it appeared that the deal might collapse.
On the morning of June 14, Israel attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut, claiming that the strike targeted a command center of Iran’s Lebanese ally, Hezbollah.
The Israeli attacks displeased Trump, who expressed his annoyance with Israel’s strike on Truth Social, saying that the attack “should not have happened particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.” As Trump recounted, during a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he asked him, “What the f*ck are you doing?”
At the same time, Trump acknowledged that Israel has the right to self-defense. In response, Iran accused the United States of playing “the game of bad cop and good cop” during the peace negotiations and began preparing retaliatory strikes.
According to a Fox News correspondent citing the US president, Trump was forced to ask Iran not to attack Israel. Trump also expressed confidence that the agreement with Iran would be signed electronically within the next two or three hours.
The New York Times reported that internal debates were taking place within the Iranian leadership over whether to respond in order to restore deterrence or to avoid striking back.
Later, information emerged from Tehran that Iran was not prepared to sign a peace agreement with the United States within Washington’s imposed deadline. At that time, a delegation from Qatar was in Iran working on the memorandum.
At 00:15 Moscow time on June 15, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the parties had reached an agreement.
“Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” the Pakistani prime minister said. He also noted that the official signing ceremony would take place on June 19 in Switzerland.
Trump also confirmed on his social media platform that the deal between the United States and Iran had finally been reached, “Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade”
He initiated the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the naval blockade against Iran with the phrase, “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
The Iranians reacted to this statement in what has become their customary style. Iranian television announced, “Thanks to the resilience of the armed forces and the people, and their fierce resistance against the criminal enemy, America was forced to accept the end of the war on all fronts.”
“We have achieved victory over America. In the memorandum, they committed themselves to ending the conflict,” declared Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi. He also confirmed that agreement had been reached on the text of the memorandum on ending hostilities with the United States.
“Soon we will publish the text of the agreement, and people will see what great achievements we have secured and what obligations we have undertaken,” the deputy foreign minister said.
It is important to note that no official text of the agreement has been released, and draft texts leaked to the media prior to signing were denied by the parties. There is a strong possibility that final wording does not yet exist and that the parties merely agreed to halt attacks and unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The remaining conditions are likely to be developed through further discussions.
“This memorandum of understanding does not signify trust in the enemy and was written in a context of simultaneous distrust,” Kazem Gharibabadi emphasized in his statement.
Over the next 60 days, the parties are expected to discuss lifting sanctions against Iran, ending resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors. A second issue for negotiation during the 60-day period will be the nuclear question. Matters related to reconstruction and economic development will also be discussed, and mechanisms for their implementation will be determined.
The New York Times wrote that Trump stated that if Iran does not reach a final nuclear agreement with the United States, he will resume military attacks on Tehran or make the United States the ‘guardian of the Middle East’ in exchange for 20% of the region’s revenues.
According to the Iranian version (published by Nour News, a website close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council), the memorandum emphasizes the lifting of US sanctions, while between $10 billion and $14 billion of Iran’s $28 billion in frozen assets will be released. At the same time, facilities for producing enriched uranium and other nuclear facilities will remain on Iranian territory. A $300 billion compensation fund will also be created, and Iran will exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a situation is extremely unstable, since many provisions of the agreement advanced by the parties contradict one another, making consensus on these issues difficult to imagine.
One may assume that what lies ahead is merely a pause in the war. Moreover, Iran already feels more freedom of action in military affairs than the United States. The new Iranian authorities have realized that the US public strongly opposes new attacks and that a kind of public-opinion emergency brake has been activated in the United States, making it difficult to start another war. Therefore, if Israel provides a new pretext through strikes in Lebanon, Iran may well respond with new attacks on US allies, who could then find themselves forced, for example, to buy their way out of the most unpleasant strikes.
Considering the situation in Gaza and Lebanon, one has to admit that the text of an agreement is one thing, while reality is another. Those Lebanese who headed south to their villages at first light saw with their own eyes that Israeli troops had no intention of leaving, while aircraft and drones continued to strike designated targets.
On the morning of June 15, Netanyahu confirmed that he did not intend to withdraw troops from Lebanon. Washington must now, in effect, act as the guarantor of the agreements and bear responsibility for the actions of its allies. But…
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz explained that Tel Aviv is pursuing a clear policy according to which the Israel Defense Forces will remain indefinitely in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza in order to protect the border and Israeli population centers from jihadist groups.
Tel Aviv will always provide Tehran with a reason for retaliatory strikes. This, in turn, will lead to the opening of new fronts in the war against Israel, that is, to the strengthening and expansion of Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Some hardline supporters in the United States and Israel are reportedly concerned that a final agreement may never be reached and that the war could end without resolving the nuclear issue. This interpretation has been voiced by the US-Israeli news portal Axios.
For many observers, the situation appears to show that a war with Iran should never have been started in the first place, the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war as well. Iran’s nuclear program was already clear: there had been a fatwa by the Supreme Leader prohibiting nuclear weapons. Now, however, the new leadership has no such fatwa but does have motivation to develop nuclear weapons. This is not to mention Iran’s missile program and its influence throughout the region.
As the Iranians themselves report: Iran is now officially a great power. After nearly fifty years of hybrid warfare, sanctions, encouragement of separatism, assassinations of scientists, military officers, and politicians (up to and including the Rahbar), as well as an international propaganda campaign of slander and demonization, Tehran has endured in the face of US-Israeli aggression.
Not everyone in the region will welcome this outcome, which means that an US-style peace agreement may ultimately result in even more war.
This is a translations of the article by Yevgeniya Shevchenko, first published on Rossa Primavera News Agency web site.
