22.02.2026, Germany.
In December, the German Armed Forces commissioned the Arrow 3 missile defense system. It is claimed that it can track and intercept Oreshnik missiles.
The combat use of Russian hypersonic “Oreshnik” missiles on the territory of Ukraine caused noticeable tension in the Western military community. The impression was made not so much by the destruction of specific Ukrainian military facilities, but rather by the convincing demonstration of the system’s capabilities, with a stated speed exceeding Mach 10 and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (separable warheads), which called into question the stability of NATO’s existing missile defense architecture.
Furthermore, in US and European expert circles, there is increasing discussion about whether the use of “Oreshnik” was a kind of stress test for the Aegis systems and new Israeli systems being integrated into the European missile defense network.
If a hypersonic platform is indeed capable of maneuvering and releasing multiple warheads outside the atmosphere, traditional interception scenarios may prove inadequate, forcing Western military analysts to urgently reconsider deterrence and defense concepts.
The new arms race in the field of hypersonic missiles, which is becoming increasingly pronounced, is the subject of an article by German publicist Florian Rötzer, published on February 14 in Overton Magazine. The Rossa Primavera News Agency publishes an abridged translation of the article.
The Arms Race in Hypersonic Missiles and Countermeasures
Russian military officials stated that in early January they struck an aircraft repair plant in Lvov with a hypersonic “Oreshnik” missile. Video footage showed several consecutive impacts. When submunitions moving at Mach 10 or 11 hit ground targets, they possess high destructive power simply due to their kinetic energy. Presumably, the “Oreshnik” was launched from the Kapustin Yar test site and covered a distance of more than 1,400 km.
It is often said that Russia used the missile, which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead, primarily to demonstrate strength to countries supporting Ukraine or for psychological pressure on them, as the strike was carried out just a few kilometers from the Polish border. However, it cannot be ruled out that the attack’s objective was to test the capabilities of Western air defense systems to detect and track “Oreshnik.” In particular, the two Aegis Ashore systems in Romania and Poland.
In December 2025, the German Armed Forces commissioned the Arrow 3 missile defense system in Holzdorf, Saxony-Anhalt. It can be adapted not only to track “Oreshnik” missiles but also to intercept them. It is quite possible that Russia wanted to observe the reaction of the Israeli early warning system.
Die Welt newspaper writes: “At least in the middle of the flight, when the missile flies along a high ballistic trajectory through space, the Arrow 3 radar stationed in Holzdorf could also have recorded its trajectory. The distance between Ukraine and eastern Germany is within the known range of the radar for detecting missiles flying at an altitude of several hundred kilometers.“
The German Federal Armed Forces did not provide further details.
It is reported that “Oreshnik” missiles are equipped with six, possibly maneuverable, Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV), which in turn can contain submunitions. This was first demonstrated in November 2024 during an attack on a weapons plant in Dnepropetrovsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim they have no capability to repel “Oreshnik” missiles, and Patriot is not suitable for this. Russian President [Vladimir] Putin claims they cannot be intercepted by any existing air defense system.
The Russian Ministry of Defense states that the attacked plant repaired aircraft of the Ukrainian armed forces, including Western F-16s and MiG-29s. Additionally, long and medium-range combat drones were produced there, which “are used for attacks on Russian civilian facilities deep within Russian territory.” The “Oreshnik” missiles struck production facilities, warehouses, and infrastructure. According to the SBU, concrete structures in one of the production buildings were slightly damaged, and craters appeared in the forest.
What damage was actually caused is unknown from independent sources. At the end of January, the Ukrainian security service SBU arrested two Ukrainian men who were allegedly supposed to assess the damage caused and report back to Russia. One of them, it is claimed, drove up to the strike sites, photographed them, and entered the coordinates into Google Maps. They face life imprisonment for treason.
“A Protective Shield Over Germany“
Shortly thereafter, it became known that Germany had signed a contract with the Israeli defense concern IAI for the supply of additional Arrow 3 air defense systems worth $3.1 billion. These systems had already been purchased previously for $3.4 billion: “The total value of the Arrow 3 contract is expected to exceed $6.5 billion, making it the largest arms export contract in the history of the State of Israel. The agreement will enhance the air and missile defense capabilities of both Germany and Israel.” The first purchase included three Arrow 3 batteries, each consisting of four launch systems, which in turn can each launch six Arrow 3 missiles.
The Arrow 3 system is designed to intercept medium-range missiles at an altitude of about 100 km and is claimed to have a range of up to 2,500 km. The German Armed Forces position Arrow as a “protective shield over Germany.” Precise data is unavailable, but the system appears unsuitable for intercepting short-range missiles that remain in the atmosphere. Theoretically, Arrow 3 could intercept “Oreshnik” missiles during exo-atmospheric flight, at least if they are used against a more distant target, such as in Germany, and do not ascend too high. However, it is unclear whether these missiles can also fly at altitudes exceeding the Arrow’s range over long distances—their flight altitude is claimed to be over 500 km. Arrow 3, along with Patriot and IRIS-T, is part of the German-initiated European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI).
Since “Oreshnik” missiles, with an estimated range of 3,500–5,470 km, have multiple warheads, they need to be intercepted before separation, likely during exo-atmospheric flight. Theoretically, it is possible that the SM-3 missiles of the Aegis system and Arrow-3 missiles could intercept “Oreshnik” missiles outside the atmosphere, but there are too many unknown parameters here and no practical evidence that this is actually possible.
The SM-3 missiles, which equip the Aegis systems in Poland and Romania—whose installation, after the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, decisively contributed to the escalation of the conflict and the arms race—have a range of up to 2,500 km. In 2008, for demonstration purposes, an old satellite system was shot down by an SM-3 missile. Israel is currently developing Arrow-5 air defense systems, which are expected to be able to intercept hypersonic weapons, maneuverable missiles with reentry vehicles, and decoy warheads.
Deep Strike Missiles for Germany?
For the purpose of military deterrence of Russia, former Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz agreed with the [US President Joe] Biden administration back in July 2024 to station Deep Strike missiles (Long-Range Hypersonic Weapons — LRHW) in Germany, which could be used to attack targets in Russia (medium-range missiles will be transferred to Germany). The Typhon missile launching platform with the Mark 41 vertical launch system will likely be used to launch Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles. The German Federal Armed Forces would like to acquire it, but it is not yet known whether the Pentagon will approve this. In addition to ground-based Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 2,000 km, a speed of 900 km/h, and a warhead weight of 300 kg, as well as SM-6 missiles with a range exceeding 360 km, the discussion involved hypersonic missiles like the Dark Eagle. These missiles have hypersonic glide vehicles. The range of the Dark Eagle previously reached 2,500 km, and now the Pentagon speaks of a range of up to 3,500 km.
“With this technology, it will be possible to reach Moscow from London,” said the Director of the Army’s Hypersonics, Directed Energy, Space and Rapid Acquisition Office, Lieutenant General Francisco Lozano, to [US Secretary of Defense Pete] Hegseth in December 2025 after tests. However, the warhead is expected to weigh less than 15 kg. Such a missile could not cause significant destruction; its targets could be air defense systems and radar systems. The missile’s speed is estimated to exceed Mach 5, and hypersonic gliders are designed to be maneuverable within Earth’s atmosphere and evade air defense systems.
As far as I understand, the question of whether, under the Trump administration, Dark Eagle missiles will actually be deployed as part of the Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) of the 56th Artillery Command in Mainz-Kastel, in what quantity, and how much it will cost Germany, remains open. The creation of an MDTF in Germany, along with four other groups elsewhere, was planned for 2021. In addition to intelligence, cybersecurity, space, and electronic warfare units, the MDTF is intended to possess long-range precision strike systems such as HIMARS, medium-range missiles, and long-range hypersonic missiles, which is clearly offensive in nature.
It is also unknown when the hypersonic missiles will be ready for use. This deadline has been postponed several times. Most recently, they were planned to be ready by the end of 2025; now the first battery is expected to be fielded during 2026. Currently, it appears only one missile can be produced per month, and the cost per missile is $40 million (3.05 billion rubles).
Germany is also trying to become independent from the USA in the field of hypersonic missiles. Thus, in early February, the German-British arms development startup Hypersonica conducted the first test of a hypersonic missile in Norway, which is claimed to have flown 300 km at a speed exceeding Mach 6. By 2029, the goal is to create a hypersonic missile capable of delivering precision strikes.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
