25.02.2025, Moscow.
The negotiation process regarding the Ukrainian conflict must be long and complex, as it involves resolving deep contradictions between the USA and NATO, while US President Donald Trump lacks the arguments to pressure Russia into peace on Western terms, said military analyst Aleksey Leonkov in a comment to Rossa Primavera News Agency.
According to him, it is too optimistic to assume that negotiations have begun.
“So far, there have only been discussions about negotiations, where both sides have outlined their positions. Trump reiterated his well-known stance that he wants peace as soon as possible – nothing new. He also stated that Ukraine is not needed as an independent party in the talks, just as the EU is not, that Ukraine will not join NATO, and much more. This deeply upset the Ukrainian junta,” Leonkov noted.
He recalled President Vladimir Putin’s position that negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict, including NATO’s eastward expansion. Additionally, any agreements must be long-term, ruling out temporary ceasefires, such as ceasefire during the Easter etc.
“Negotiations are separate topic. The military operations in the special military operation zone are entirely different. We are fulfilling our objectives there, and no one can stop us,” the military expert emphasized.
However, Leonkov sees the first direct contact between Russia and the USA in 3–4 years as a sign that Washington recognizes the conflict is not working in its favor. He pointed out that Trump called Putin, not the other way around.
From the initial dialogue to actual negotiations – where terms are set and Russia’s national interests and security are prioritized – a significant amount of time will pass, Leonkov believes.
‘Too many contradictions and actions on the part of the United States and NATO countries have been made against Russia, and it will not be possible to to simply ignore and pretend everything is fine,” Leonkov added.
When Vladimir Putin talks about long-term negotiations, he is referring to the format that was reached after World War II, the analyst explained. “This is the Yalta and Potsdam Conference,s which defined the security system that has worked for the past 77 years,” he noted.
According to the expert, this system began to be destroyed after the special military operation began. More precisely, everything that led to it had already affected this security system.
“And the Doomsday Clock that nuclear scientists came up with showed that the time before the start of the global conflict was getting shorter and shorter. So the policy of escalation that Biden and his entourage were pursuing was leading to just that. And here Trump was right, it could lead to such scenarios,” Leonkov emphasised.
However, Trump’s entourage also mentions nuclear weapons as some kind of argument.
“The reality is that there are no effective arguments that could force Russia to negotiate on Trump’s terms. Those terms essentially amount to Russia’s capitulation,” the expert asserted.
According to Leonkov, the USA lacks the leverage to pressure Russia, and Washington is fully aware of this.
“If they attempt to play the nuclear card, the outcome will not be in their favor. Trump understands this. His analysts have finally assessed the Oreshnik missile and reached an unpleasant conclusion for the USA – even without using nuclear weapons, Russia can inflict severe damage on the USA and EU, and there is no effective countermeasure,” he pointed out.
Such assessments have forced the U.S. to shift toward a more diplomatic approach to the Ukrainian conflict, Leonkov believes.
“You can threaten as long as you like, but if you have no real defensive system – especially when the US national security doctrine relies on engaging in wars while minimizing domestic damage – then such a war becomes unacceptable for the USA,” he concluded.
