13.11.2022, Yerevan.
If Azerbaijan launches an attack on the territory of Armenia, Iran will enter Nakhijevan in Azerbaijan and use the religious factor against Azerbaijani authorities, Armenian expert on Iran Harut Arakelyan said on November 13 in The Power Factor program of Armenian News – News.am agency.
“In case of Azerbaijan’s military invasion of Armenian territory, Iran will take a number of steps: it will try to use the issue of national minorities in Azerbaijan as well as the issue of Nakhijevan, given that the thesis of seizing Nakhijevan is widely discussed in the Iranian society,” Arakelyan said.
According to him, Iran could even resort to the bombardment of Azerbaijan if the Azerbaijani actions pose a serious threat to Iran’s interests. The expert believes that Azerbaijan may start fighting not in the south of Armenia, but to the north, in the direction of Jermuk, to be away from a probable strike by Iran.
“But if Azerbaijan wants to cut off Armenia in the direction of Jermuk, it will be more strategically expedient for Iran to enter Nakhijevan, because it is flat and easier to penetrate there than in mountainous Syunik. All this will lead to a major war,” the expert believes.
Besides, Iran can make the Azerbaijani authorities oppose the Shiites, who present a significant part of the population in the country. “We see that in Azerbaijan they detain everyone who exclaims ‘I am Husayn’ (the third Imam of Shia Islam) during funerals. Azerbaijan is fighting against this,” Arakelyan noted.
On October 20, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that any change of historical borders in Transcaucasia is absolutely unacceptable for Iran. This applies first of all to the borders of Armenia, through the territory of which Iran traditionally carries out carriage of goods.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
