Washington gathers armies along Russia’s borders
In April 2022, the whole world was discussing the likelihood of the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Then, these two countries themselves did not seem to have made their final decisions. However, the USA did not even try to hide its interest in building “an iron fist” at Russia’s northern borders.
Russia’s success in the special military operation in Ukraine could not remain unnoticed in Europe and in the USA. Perhaps this is why Sweden’s and Finland’s progress towards accession to NATO so dramatically boosted by the end of the spring. The West is doing its best to pull Stockholm and Helsinki in the military bloc, promising vast benefits from the potential deployment of nuclear forces in Scandinavia.
By the middle of May, Scandinavia has finally made its decision. The Swedish government approved the decision to enter the North Atlantic alliance. King of Sweden Carl XVI Gustaf supported the government calling the decision “a historic choice.” Soon, the first NATO officer reportedly arrived to the country. Stockholm thus stressed that the accession to NATO had almost taken place. As soon as on May 18, the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden submitted their applications for accession to NATO to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Ivan Sobolev © Rossa Primavera News Agency
The NATO and US leaders were not slow in supporting the Scandinavian countries. Jens Stoltenberg and US President Joe Biden made statements that showed that the West would maximally accelerate the bureaucratic and political accession procedures. As soon as the next day, Biden addressed the US Congress to approve the extension of the military bloc. “I am submitting a report on the accession of the Republic of Finland to NATO,” Biden wrote in his letter to Congress. The US presidential administration submitted a similar letter on Sweden. According to Biden, Sweden and Finland meet all the requirements of the alliance, and they will significantly strengthen the military alliance.
As recently as in May an official from the US Department of State press service Ned Price stressed that there was no threat to Helsinki and Stockholm despite the escalation in Eastern Europe. Seemingly, nothing has changed for Scandinavia over the past weeks from Russia’s side. But the Western countries could not help making a little show around the alliance extension plans.
As soon as Jens Stoltenberg received the accession applications, dozens of countries promised to protect Sweden and Finland for the period until they become members of the military bloc. Predictably, the most active here were the Western and Northern European countries, but also Germany and the Netherlands. Washington traditionally promised the strongest military support to the potential allies, but, according to the Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist, the USA gave no written guarantees.
Will nuclear weapons be deployed in Sweden and Finland?
The deployment of nuclear potential and NATO forces is an issue of great importance. The alliance’s Headquarters in Brussels evaded a direct answer regarding nuclear weapons on the territory of Scandinavia. At a press conference in Brussels on May 19, journalists addressed Supreme Allied Commander Europe Tod Waters. Waters was asked whether “permanent NATO bases or even nuclear weapons” could be deployed in the future in Sweden and Finland. But the commander skipped the question.
A decision on sending US troops to the northern borders of Russia has not been made either. According to the Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, these discussions are ongoing, but no final decision has been made.
Such a dramatic strengthening of enemy’s military positions next to the borders will definitely face a negative reaction in Russia, and Scandinavia seemingly understands this very well. Stockholm and Helsinki are clearly preparing to problems in their economy and a potential military confrontation with Moscow.
Back in the middle of March Sweden announced a blockade of the Russian ships through the dock workers’ union. Over the two months, the Swedish dockers have significantly reduced the number of Russian ships entering Swedish ports. The Kingdom’s Parliament is looking for a solution to completely stop using the Russian oil and gas.
Yury Verderevsky © Rossa Primavera News Agency
Refusing the import of Russian timber has already triggered a dramatic increase in wood products prices. By the summer, the Kingdom expects doubled electric power prices (vs. 2021). In spite of the economic costs, Sweden ponders allocating almost $600 million for civil defense. A similar breakup of relations is taking place in Finland. According to former Estonian ambassador to Helsinki Harri Tiido, the Finnish army has long been preparing to war against Russia. “Over decades, they have been preparing to only one thing, another Winter War,” Tiido said.
Although USA’s allies mostly welcome the accelerated accession to NATO, there are some exceptions. Seemingly, two members of the alliance, Turkey and Croatia, have decided to extort something for themselves using their veto. Besides, both Ankara and Zagreb are not fundamentally against an enlargement of the alliance. Croatia is seeking to strengthen its positions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the Croatian diaspora is the third largest one in the almost 3.5 million population.
Turkey demands support for its position on the Kurdish issue. The relations between the alliance and Turkey are a separate (and sensitive) issue. However, both Finland and Sweden refuse to cooperate with Turkey on the Kurdish problem. Both countries demonstrate their support to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party despite the fact that Turkey calls it a terrorist organization.
Russia keeps watching without any visible activity regarding this issue. The Russian Foreign Ministry and many leading politicians have quite straightforwardly said that a reaction will definitely follow the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Moscow has not disclosed this reaction in detail, alluding to economic, political, and military options.
In addition to already known requirements of paying for gas in rubles, blocking the Saimaa Channel and withdrawal from the cooperation in the Arctic region has already been mentioned in Russia. The Saimaa Channel connects the Saimaa Lake in Finland with the Bay of Vyborg in Russia, simplifying Finnish ships’ access to the Baltic Sea.
Assessments from Russia
According to political scientist Vladimir Dzharalla, several factors motivate Sweden and Finland to enter NATO. Both countries have been neutral in their relations with Russia over decades; Sweden has remained in this status for 300 years. However, over such a long period, many disagreements with Russia have accumulated in Scandinavia and in Europe on the whole, which had to be hidden before. Now as Russophobia has openly unfolded in Europe, the cards can be revealed.
“To a large extent, this was an emotional decision driven by irritation accumulated over many years due to both domestic and international reasons,” Dzharalla explained.
Also, the ruling elites in Europe, including the Scandinavian countries, have become largely globalist, the expert believes.
“The most of the contemporary Western elites are not really national elites but rather globalist ones. These people have undergone many years of training, they were educated in international universities in their youth, and they worked in various foundations, and many of them perceive themselves not Swedes or Finns but members of a global Europe,” the political scientist explained.
The Swedish and Finnish ruling elites betrayed their national interests, and they have managed to sell their position to a major part of the public. Now Scandinavia is approaching a line that is critical to Russia. Dzharalla believes that deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the northern neighbors will formally mean the declaration of war to Russia.
“As for the latter issue, even if deployment of nuclear weapons on these territories is discussed, for Russia that will be exactly the red lines, which only one, the most hard-line response, can follow,” the expert explained.
Political scientist, doctor of political sciences, professor of the Moscow State University Sergey Chernyakhovsky assumes that the strengthening of NATO in Scandinavia is not a real threat to Russia, although it will strain the relations and force it to strengthen its borders.
Interim results
It is now clear that Sweden and Finland will nevertheless enter NATO. Russia’s response will depend on the kind of weapons and the scope of the alliance’s contingent our Scandinavian neighbors will decide to accommodate. In any event, the friendly and good-neighbor relations with these countries will be revised.
This is a translation of the article written by Anton Abramov for Rossa Primavera News Agency.
