Migrants by Cyprian Majernik, 1944.
A serious migration crisis in connection with the events in Afghanistan is unlikely, Vice-President of the Experimental Creative Center International Public Foundation Yury Byaly said on August 20 in a commentary for the Rossa Primavera News Agency.
Byaly cited two arguments in favor of his assessment. Firstly, he noted, “language barriers are strong: the majority of the population speaks only Persian-language variants, which are very difficult for migrants in the West”.
According to the expert, the second reason is that “a huge part of potential refugees are related to their neighbors: Hazaras are related to Iran, Turkomans to Turkmenistan, Uzbeks and Tajiks to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, respectively, Baluchis and Pashtuns to Pakistan”. The Taliban (organization banned in Russia) are Pashtuns, although other ethnic groups are present there too, recalled Byaly.
At the same time, Yuri Byaly emphasized that much will depend on how the Islamists, who have gained power, will behave, “And in the sense that they have never been united within themselves: there is a complicated system of ethno-clan splits. And in the sense that they already have the political experience of the previous period of power and, perhaps, will try to avoid the previous excesses of religious fanaticism and ethnic Pashtun domination, which alienated a large part of the population from them”.
Byaly did not accept the possibility of an ethnic split in Afghanistan and the possible participation in strengthening such a split on the part of the Anglo-Saxon world. In this case, the Pashtun-Taliban (organization banned in Russia) may be forced out of the country and expand into China or Pakistan, as well as the republics of the Russian “underbelly”.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency