25.05.2024, Moscow.
Iran has developed enough to be able to give a serious military response, but it makes a maximum effort to avoid being drawn into a major war, the leader of the Essence of Time movement, philosopher and political scientist Sergey Kurginyan said on April 19 on the program Conversation with a Sage on the Zvezda radio station.
Kurginyan stressed that Iran has grown into a real industrial power. “The gentlemen who said that Iran was donkeys and rifles must forget that idea forever,” he said.
According to the political scientist, this has been clearly shown by the “demonstrative action” of a retaliatory strike against Israel, which Iran performed having warned about everything it would do and thus deliberately reducing the effect of this action by about hundred times (as there was no element of surprise), and thus it achieved what it wanted.
“It achieved the key thing: it demonstrated, first, that it would not hide anymore, and second, that it has some industrial power. Maybe not as great as it would like to have, but already sufficient,” Kurginyan described the goals of the Iranian demonstrative action.
“Next, the nuclear problem and the hypersonic missiles will inevitably follow; the latter, as we have seen in practice, neither the integrated air defenses nor the notorious Iron Dome can stop,” the political scientist added.
He explained that Israel can shoot down drones. “This is not too difficult, just expensive, and everything depends on their number,” Kurginyan noted, and he explained that this will also be a problem when really many drones are used.
“But hypersonic missiles are already available, and the nuclear industry is approaching its military goal,” the political scientist stressed.
Kurginyan wondered what Israel can actually counterpose to this industrial development of Iran. “In this sense, what does the Sabra (Israeli-born – Rossa Primavera News Agency) elite in Israel actually plan? Will it hit the Iranian nuclear facilities itself? Alone? On its own? It wants the collective NATO forces to strike, but they do not want to,” he noted.
According to the political scientist, if Israel attacks Iranian strategic facilities Iran’s response will be several orders of magnitude more powerful than the recent demonstration. “And it is already clear that the response could have been 10 or 100 times more powerful than what was demonstrated. This demonstration was a small part of what will happen,” Kurginyan explained.
The political scientist believes that after such Iran’s response the Israeli government and the Israeli military are in a sort of confusion. “What should they do? Send the Israeli air force to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities? They are under the ground. What would be the response? They already can see what it would be. They understand that it is not a problem to make it 10 times more powerful,” he described the situation.
“Also, to do so they have to initiate a dramatic contradiction with the USA. For [US President Joe] Biden, any variation in oil prices is a great threat. Although we need it, indeed. What is deadly to Biden is good for the Russians. Why not have 200-300 dollars per barrel? But Biden does not need that. And any bombardment like that will inflate the prices,” Kurginyan added.
According to him, Biden asks the Israeli government not to escalate the situation until the US presidential elections. “This repeats the story with the Safari Club. Some want Biden to be elected, while others do not want it at all,” the political scientist noted.
However, Kurginyan believes that Trump as US president would be better for Israel than Biden if overall parameters are considered. “But how long would it take? And who knows what he would do! To what extent would he behave like an isolationist? And what would the Republican party ultimately come up with? But for now, all this is a deadly threat for Biden,” he explained how complex the situation is.
“Thus, the Israeli attack the embassy although they understand that a reaction would follow, which scares Biden into a panic, and that they hold this escalation factor in their hands. This means that they can control Biden over these months to a certain extent simply using this political blackmail, a pure game,” the political scientist said.
According to him, Israel seeks US approval of all its plans regarding Gaza Strip. “A complicated game is ongoing in a situation when escalation is inevitable while the current dead ends can only have strategic resolutions,” Kurginyan stressed.
“This means, in this sense, that they require not a Sabra (an ordinary Israeli guy – Rossa Primavera News Agency) but an Einstein in politics. They require large-scale thinking, a readiness to take sharp turns, a change in the overall condition of the Israeli society, which will not survive having become consumerist. A more strategic maneuver in relations, readiness to have dialogues in spite of inertia, at an anti-intertial level, at the level of strategic novelty,” Kurginyan said.
He expressed confidence that, unless all the indicated things are available, a new escalation will take place, which will gradually bring Israel to a major war.
According to the political scientist, Iran is making every effort to avoid being drawn into such a major conflict. This is why the action of Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel was just a show, in which Iran warned about everything thus dramatically reducing the potential damage from its attack, Kurginyan concluded.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
