The Romanian territorial claims have more than once become a fatal Gordian knot for Europe. Now that knot is being tightened again…
Romania has the largest land border with Ukraine of all the states that belong to the eastern flank of NATO. This country claims territories of Moldova and some territories of Ukraine. The desire to take possession of these territories intensified with the start of the Russian special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. Romanian politicians saw this as an opportunity to implement the project of “Greater Romania”, at least in terms of expanding the borders of Romania to the East.
One can make this assumption after considering the events reflected in the Romanian media.
Situation in Romania before the special operation
In October 2021, Romania saw a political crisis, resulting in the dissolution of the coalition government formed from three parties (the National Liberal Party, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania, and the Save Romania Union) and the resignation of Prime Minister Florin Cîțu. A new government coalition was created, also consisting of three parties (the National Liberal Party, the Social Democratic Party, and the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania). The new government was headed by Nicolae Ciucă, a politician who in the previous Romanian government had served as Minister of Defense, and after heading the new government he also superseded Florin Cîțu as head of the National Liberal Party.
In turn, Cîțu (National Liberal) took over the Romanian Senate, and the leader of the Social Democratic Party Marcel Ciolacu took over the Romanian Chamber of Deputies. The new coalition is bound by an agreement between the National Liberal and Social Democratic parties, according to which the position of prime minister should go to the Social Democrat Marcel Ciolacu starting next year.
It should be noted that the new coalition looks unnatural in many ways. The national liberals in their public speeches constantly referred to Social Democrats as a “toxic party,” “criminals,” or the “red plague.” At the same time, their official party documents prohibited any political dialogue.
Nevertheless, the new Romanian government, formed by an “unnatural” alliance including these two parties, has no disagreements about the country’s foreign policy. For the members of the Cabinet of Ministers, the basic assumption is that Romania is a part of the European Union, and that it was in its capital that the so-called “Bucharest Nine” was created – an association of nine countries in Central and Eastern Europe, created to deepen the military cooperation between countries on the eastern flank of NATO. And therefore, the attitude toward the special operation in Ukraine will be dictated by this understanding of their positions.
It is important to emphasize that Romania began preparing for an influx of refugees from the territory of Ukraine even before the special operation for demilitarization and denazification began.
Thus, on January 23, Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dîncu (Social Democrat) said that in case of a conflict in Ukraine, refugees may arrive in Romania, so local authorities are preparing to provide them with humanitarian aid.
“We are now preparing to assist refugees (from Ukraine). It’s our humanitarian obligation,” Dîncu said at a time when no troops were no brought in, and only Ukrainian shelling of the LPR territory was continuing.
However, we must admit that the moment was understood correctly. As of today, more than one million citizens of Ukraine have already crossed the Romanian border.
In addition, the Romanian leadership has provided its airspace for the aircraft of NATO countries, which actively conduct air reconnaissance of both the Black Sea and the Ukrainian territory.
Romania, Ukraine and Moldova
Romania’s territorial interests in Ukraine and Moldova are well known. These are the lands of these two countries, which became part of the USSR in 1940. It is, in particular, about Northern Bukovina, Hertza, Northern and Southern Bessarabia, as well as the Snake Island, which are part of Ukraine and most of Bessarabia, now part of Moldova.
The claim to these territories is mostly of a historical nature, because Romania had these territories as part of its territory. The beginning of the formation of the Romanian state began with the unification of the Danubian principalities (Wallachia and Moldavia) in 1859. The new state formation existed under a protectorate of Ottoman Empire. During the Russian-Turkish war in 1877-1878 united principality of Wallachia and Moldavia proclaimed their independence, which was officially recognized by the Russian Empire in 1878, which was confirmed by the peace treaty signed in San Stefano. In 1881, following the proclamation of King Carol I as king, the Kingdom of Romania was established on the territory of this state formation.
In 1913, Romania took part in the Second Balkan War on the side of Serbia and Greece against Bulgaria. As a result of the Bucharest Peace Treaty of August 1913, Romania received the territories of South Dobrogea, which were later lost in 1940.
After World War I, at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919-1920, the Romanian delegation reclaimed the territories of the Austro-Hungarian Empire that it had been promised when it entered World War I. In accordance with the Treaties of Saint-Germain, Neuilly and Trianon, Transylvania, where 48 percent of the population were Hungarians and Germans, as well as Bukovina and Southern Dobrogea, populated chiefly by Rusyns and Bulgarians, were given to Romania. In October 1920, the Entente powers signed the so-called Paris Protocol recognizing Bessarabia as a Romanian possession. Earlier this territory belonged to the Russian Empire and was called Bessarabian Province.
In June 1940, Romania returned the territories of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina to the USSR in accordance with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. And in August 1940, Romania lost the territories of Northern Transylvania. Hungary gained them.
After such great and painful territorial losses, the people of the Romanian Kingdom were disappointed in the monarchy and the Romanian King Carol II. The fascists, led by Ion Antonescu, took advantage of this circumstance and seized power. In 1941, the new leader of Romania, dictator Antonescu, supported Nazi Germany in the war against the Soviet Union. By the fall of 1941, Romania, with the support of Hitler’s Germany, had regained the territories of Bessarabia and northern Bukovina, and occupied the entire contemporary Odessa region of Ukraine. According to the German-Romanian agreement in Bender of August 30, 1941, the territory between the Dniester and Bug rivers was given to Romania as a reward for its participation in the war against the Soviet Union.
Further, in 1944, during the liberation of Romania by Soviet troops, the dictatorship of Antonescu was overthrown and the Romanian Kingdom ceased to exist – the country fell into the Soviet zone of influence. On February 10, 1947, the Paris Peace Treaties were signed, which confirmed Romania’s sovereignty over the territory of Northern Transylvania. Also, the Treaties confirmed the borders between the Soviet Union and Romania, which were established in June 1940. In 1947, the Romanian People’s Republic was founded. Thus, Romania now exists within the post-war borders approved by the Paris Peace Treaties.
However, the contemporary political elite of Romania does not at all forget about “Greater Romania.” That is, it dreams of gathering all the territories that have ever belonged to the Romanian state.
The coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014, the war that began in Donbass, as well as the subsequent economic weakening of the Ukrainian state… All this made the Romanian leadership think again not only about the inclusion of the Moldovan territories in Romania, but also about the separation from Ukraine of parts of the Chernovtsy and Odessa regions. It was with this expectation that a draft declaration on the denunciation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and its results was submitted to the Bucharest Parliament back in 2018.
At the same time, the Romanian authorities were negotiating with Ukrainian politicians about the recognition of the Moldovan language in Ukraine as “non-existent”. Similar processes are taking place in Moldova itself. In addition, Romania is engaged in the issuance of its passports, both in Ukraine and in the territory of Moldova. Back in 2008, Romania simplified the procedure of obtaining passports for those who have lived or reside in the territory of Northern Bukovina (the Chernovtsy region of Ukraine) and Bessarabia (Moldova) or are the descendants of the residents who lived in these territories from 1918 to 1940. As follows from the above-described history of the Romanian state – this period is not chosen by chance. It was during this time that these territories were part of Romania. According to official data, which was announced by the Secretary of State of the Department for Relations with Moldova, as of June 2022 more than one million Romanian passports have already been issued to the citizens of Moldova.
The issuance of passports is only part of the work of the Romanian authorities in approaching the implementation of the project “Greater Romania”. Thus, in Ukraine, the Romanian authorities promote the work of such bodies of influence as parishes of the Romanian Orthodox Church (127 active parishes in the Chernovtsy region alone), as well as radio stations, TV channels and a list of print media, broadcasting to an audience of ethnic Romanians, who mainly live in the territory of the Chernovtsy and Odessa regions.
The situation in Moldova is worthy of special attention. Romania has actually taken this country under its “guardianship”, both politically and economically. The President of Moldova is completely pro-Romanian Maia Sandu, who has more than once called upon the replacement of the Moldavian language in the Constitution of the country with Romanian. The pro-Romanian forces are gradually taking the Moldovan Parliament under their control.
As for the economy, Romania initiated the process of creation of a platform of support of Moldova with Germany and France, which are the economic locomotives of the European Union. The countries are going to jointly provide humanitarian and economic assistance to Moldova amid the increasing number of Ukrainian refugees, as well as the socio-economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This crisis was further exacerbated by the sanctions imposed by the Western countries on Russia in response to the special operation for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
In early March, Moldova, following Ukraine, applied for EU membership. However, in order to join the EU, it is necessary that there be no territorial issues. Moldova is obviously not such a country. After Maia Sandu signed the EU accession application, Transnistria asked the international community to recognize its independence, because the people of the small unrecognized state are not going to become a part of the European Union.
At the end of April and beginning of May, five terrorist attacks occurred in Transnistria.
On April 25, the building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol was attacked, and then the Tiraspol airport was attacked from the air. The next morning, explosions rocked the Transnistrian radio and television center.
On April 27, drones flying in from Ukraine attacked the village of Kolbasna.
On May 6, four explosions occurred at the abandoned airfield.
Immediately there was a reaction from Romania and Moldova. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that there are military circles in Transnistria that want to resume the military conflict. In turn, the Romanian Foreign Ministry condemned the terrorist attacks in Transnistria and called for the territorial integrity of Moldova.
On April 28, in the Romanian social networks, there were reports that columns of the Romanian Armed Forces were moving towards the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. Eyewitnesses reported that armored personnel carriers, light armored vehicles, and accompanying vehicles were seen in the column. However, the Romanian Ministry of Defense denied the presence of its armed forces on Moldovan territory.
On the same day, the president of the Chamber of Deputies of Romania Marcel Ciolacu said that Romania was going to hold a parliamentary meeting with Moldova because of the terrorist attacks in Transnistria.
In the second half of May, a preliminary interparliamentary meeting was held in Iasi. This city is not only close to the Romanian-Moldovan border, but also is a significant historical place, because Iasi was once the capital of the former Principality of Moldova, which existed before the unification of the Danubian principalities (Wallachia and Moldova). This unification was the beginning of the process of forming the Romanian state, as we discussed earlier.
The president of the Moldovan Parliament Igor Grosu said during the meeting that “today’s meeting will be part of a series of events that will send a very clear signal to the political class in Kishinyov and Bucharest, as well as to the European Union”.
On June 8, former Moldovan President Igor Dodon said that the West is provoking destabilization in Moldova to justify “its military and political annexation to Romania and the deployment of NATO troops on its territory.”
“It is obvious that Maia Sandu [incumbent Moldovan president – Rossa Primavera News Agency] and her foreign masters are following the Ukrainian scenario, provoking a deliberate destabilization of the situation, and some political actors from the West want to use Moldovans as cannon fodder in the geopolitical battle that is currently taking place in this region. The military and political annexation of our country to the territory of Romania, with the rejection of neutrality, is being prepared,” the politician wrote on his Telegram channel.
On June 18, a joint session of Romanian and Moldovan parliamentarians was held in the Moldovan capital Kishinyov, where Romanian representatives expressed their support for granting Moldova the candidate status for “membership of the European Union.” Also at a joint session, the president of the Chamber of Deputies of Romania, Social Democrat Marcel Ciolacu said that “Romania will provide all necessary support for the development of defense, security and combat capabilities necessary to ensure the independence and trivial integrity of the Republic of Moldova.”
Romania’s military-industrial complex and the army in the context of the conflict in Ukraine
At the same time, Romania itself has a difficult economic situation – it is one of the poorest countries in the European Union. The economic crisis, which intensified with the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, also affected military production. Many state-owned military factories have closed. In view of the renewed military conflict in Ukraine, the Romanian government has taken the initiative to write off all debts from the accounts of all companies in the country’s military-industrial complex so that they can resume their work.
For reference, the Romanian Armed Forces have 70,000 people and another 60,000 in reserve. Therefore, the Government of the country has decided to increase the number of reservists who have special military training. To achieve this it was decided to increase the salaries of volunteers-reservists by three times, up to three thousand Romanian leu. Against the background of the general poverty of the population, this measure increased the interest of the country’s citizens in the armed forces.
Military support of Ukraine
In April, the Romanian authorities amended the governmental decree in order to legally stipulate the possibility of armament transfer from NATO countries to the states that are not members of the alliance. Thus, Romania got the possibility to transfer heavy weapons to Ukraine from its strategic reserve.
The Romanian media reported that the state was supplying Ukrainian troops with arms and ammunition, including machine guns produced in Romania. However, Romanian authorities claim that they only send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, as well as helmets and body armor, adding that they have not received any requests from Kiev for arms supplies.
Bucharest also promised to provide corridors for supplying Ukraine with a variety of weapons from other countries.
Snake Island
On the first day of the special operation, Russian troops took control of Snake Island. In early May, the Ukrainian army attempted to retake the island. As a result of the unsuccessful assault, the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment. This raised the question of why it was so important for Ukraine and its allies to control the island.
The fact is that the island is in a strategically important location. Control over it, on the one hand, allows Ukraine to control the Black Sea transport flow and, on the other hand, a significant part of the continental shelf, which is rich in natural gas and oil reserves. Thus, by capturing the island, Russian troops have blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, disrupting the logistics of Ukrainian grain, sunflower oil and other product shipments to Western countries, and depriving the Kiev regime and its Western leaders of control over the gas and oil deposits in a large area of the continental shelf belonging to Ukraine.
Since Snake Island is in close proximity to Romanian territorial waters, its control by Russian troops is of concern to Romanian authorities.
Thus, the former director of the Intelligence Service of Romania Costin Georgescu believes that Russian troops from Snake Island can monitor Odessa, the western side of the Ukrainian coast, control the Danube Delta, the Romanian port of Constanta and threaten the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, where the NATO contingent covering the port of Constanta is stationed. In Georgescu’s opinion, the control of the island by Russian troops poses great risks to gas production on the Romanian continental shelf.
Since Europe is going to abandon Russian gas, the question of finding alternative sources of natural gas becomes very important. And in this sense, the continental shelf of the Black Sea could compensate for some of the Russian gas supplies. The Romanian authorities pin their hopes on this. They expect that by developing the shelf Romania could become a major regional exporter of gas in the European Union. The Romanian shelf contains the largest proven gas reserves among the European countries with access to the Black Sea – 200 billion cubic meters. In general, the resources of the northwestern part of the Black Sea are estimated at 495.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 50.4 million tons of oil and condensate.
In April, Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă said on Radio Romania that the country expects to produce its first volumes of natural gas in 2022. It is assumed that by 2026 the state will be able to fully provide itself with Black Sea gas, so in 2026-2027 supplies to other countries will begin.
According to Ciucă, the US company Black Sea Oil & Gas has signed documents on the acceptance of the first natural gas from natural deposits on the Black Sea shelf. This project will produce one billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. The first gas extracted from the Black Sea will arrive in the Romanian gas transmission system on June 15, 2022.
However, due to the fact that Romania is not an economically stable country – it is forced to resort to European investors. In May, a scandal in connection with the European investment in the gas project broke out in Romania. George Simion, the leader of the right-wing nationalist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians, proposed amendments to the law on offshore companies to parliament. The proposal was to double the tax for owners of foreign capital in Romania. He argued for this bill by saying that the country is in a deplorable economic condition, because in the treasury there is no money for important social programs for the population.
However, in response, Simion was criticized and once again accused of “working for Russia” by the Minister of Energy Virgil-Daniel Popescu. The latter stated that a measure proposed by Simion will scare away foreign investors who are investing in the Black Sea gas project.
At the same time, the section of the continental shelf, which is located between the Russian peninsula of Crimea, the Black Sea coast of Ukraine and Snake Island, is estimated at 600 billion cubic meters of natural gas, most of which is concentrated in the area of Snake Island.
It is worth recalling that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Romania had territorial claims to Ukraine in the Black Sea, the area of interest of that country included also Snake Island. However, at that time Romania was forced to renounce its territorial claims to this island in order to join NATO.
In 2004, a new territorial dispute broke out, which ended in 2009 at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Then Romania seized a significant part of the disputed territories of the continental shelf, where it is going to conduct gas drilling.
But the Romanian mass-media fears that if Russian troops occupy the whole of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, the next step will be for Russia to contest the sea territories taken from Ukraine.
The Romanian authorities, in cooperation with the authorities of Ukraine and Moldova, were able to solve the problem of transportation of Ukrainian food. Now the food is delivered by trucks to Moldovan ports on the Danube River and then transported to Romania. Part of the food supply that is exported to distant countries is sent to the Romanian seaport of Constanta.
The media indicates that since the start of the special operation on the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, the Romanian port of Constanta has become a major regional hub, the turnover of which has increased by more than 10% compared with last year.
What’s next? It is not known yet. But it is well known that the Romanian territorial claims have more than once become a fatal Gordian knot for Europe. The history of the two world wars and, for example, the issue of Transylvania in European politics testify to that. The recent events related to Romania described above suggest that this knot is currently being tightened anew with renewed vigor.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency
