Political scientist assesses the risk of war between Russia and NATO

25.11.2021, Moscow.

Russia’s fears about NATO advancing to its borders and militarizing the Black Sea region look more substantiated than speculations about preparations for a Russian armed invasion of Ukraine, political scientist and senior lecturer at the Russian State Humanitarian University Vladimir Beklyamishev said to Rossa Primavera News Agency on November 25.

Beklyamishev said, “If we talk about the situation objectively, Russia’s fears about ‘persistent expansion’ of NATO infrastructure to its borders and militarization of the Black Sea region look more substantiated than arguments about the preparation of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine.”

However, according to the political scientist, Russia did not undertake a “march on Kiev” in the more favorable military and political conditions of spring 2014. “The costs of such an operation for all sides are disproportionately higher than the potential gains. So, a big war in Europe should not be expected either now or in the future,” the political scientist said.

Beklyamishev also commented on the prospects for local Ukrainian aggression against Donbass. In his opinion, the assessment that was given by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) seems fair.

“The situation is comparable to the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict of 2008. That time, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s attempt to ‘push’ his position by force resulted in his deep disappointment both in the combat effectiveness of his own armed forces and in the reality of guarantees from the US and NATO,” the political analyst explained.

On November 22, Bloomberg reported, citing US intelligence sources, that Russia could allegedly plan an invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and conduct it from three directions, including through the territory of Belarus. In addition, Moscow allegedly drafted tens of thousands of reservists on a scale unprecedented for post-Soviet times, the publication reported.

Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency

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