The military phase of the possible escalation in Donbass will end up with a bloodshed and no progress, political analyst Oleg Saakyan said on March 6 on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel.
The host of the show asked the expert to comment on what scenarios of the situation in Donbass he can foresee and what consequences may be in case the attempt to resolve the civil conflict by a military operation.
The political scientist believes that the peace negotiation process will stagnate and it will be better for Ukraine, because an escalation of violence will have worse consequences for the country.
“If we talk now about the situation on the front line, Russia will only raise the stakes. If at the same time we talk about a military scenario, we very often get ourselves caught up by the stereotype of war in eastern Ukraine,” Saakyan said.
The analyst believes that the warzone is wider than the territory of Donbass, since the Ukrainian government does not consider the conflict a civil war, but a “Russian-Ukrainian war”. Thus, the hostilities can unfold in different directions.
“Let’s imagine now the destabilization on the Ukrainian Black Sea coastline, for example, during the peak season of agricultural goods export, metallurgy and so on, what consequences it will have,” Saakyan stressed.
The political scientist clarified that the attempt to resolve the issue by force is doomed to failure, because neither Ukraine nor Donbass has enough strength to win the confrontation.
“So far, the military scenario looks stalemated – it will just be a bloodshed, and will give no serious shift in the balance of power,” Oleg Saakyan summed up.
The Ukrainian servicemen are officially rotating brigades on the front line in Donbass. Under this pretext they are pulling military equipment and troops into the combat zone.
On March 5, the DPR People’s Militia published a report based on observing Ukrainian Armed Forces movements during a week period that revealed the location of 142 weapons and military equipment units near the front line.
Earlier, Ruslan Khomchak, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, reported that Ukrainian army units practiced offensives and fights in the city during 2020. Ukrainian troops were trained by NATO instructors, who officially reside on the territory of the country.
The head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group, Leonid Kravchuk, blocked any initiatives to peacefully agree on the new security guarantees and control of the ceasefire during the meetings.
Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency