Who benefits from the attacks on the Saudi oil refineries? Yuri Byaly on the “Saudi scenario”

19.09.2019, Moscow.

The terrorist attacks on the Saudi oil refineries came at “a quite opportune time.”

The next round of trade negotiations between the US and China ended to no avail: China, as before, agreed to minor concessions, but didn’t backtrack on the fundamental issues. Enraged, Trump, who really needs foreign policy victories, in view of the presidential election campaign, which is already underway, once again said rude things to his Chinese partners.

And China has taken a very major step, a kind of demonstration addressed to the United States. It concluded a $280 billion strategic investment agreement with Tehran, clearly and openly ignoring the US oil sanctions against Iran. Moreover, it stipulated that the main investments will be directed specifically at the oil and gas segments of the Iranian economy.

As a result, first of all, the US anti-Iran sanction regime is collapsing. And this is not a trifle, but a direct and demonstrative disobedience to the “hegemon”. Secondly, hopes are crumbling that China, deprived of Iranian oil, will be forced to either buy US oil or exist on meager oil rations with the consequent problems in its own economy. Thirdly, Trump’s promises to force Beijing to sign a trade agreement on extremely disadvantageous terms are crumbling.

Therefore, the attack on the Saudi refineries, in which the United States was immediately eager to blame Iran, may well be used by the US as an excuse to start a major war. The US is quite capable, under the already publicly announced pretext of “protecting its Saudi allies,” to launch missile and bomb strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. It is calculated to receive political dividends simultaneously from the “protection of its ally”, from the “punishment of Iran”, and from the collapse of China’s “oil ambitions”. And most importantly, from demonstrating the determination of the United States (and of course, Trump personally) to defend its interests at any cost.

For all this, it is, of course, necessary to convince the “international community” that the attack on the Saudi refineries was done by some insignificant Hussites with the help of some drones. Although the Hussites not only have justified reasons for attacking the Saudis, who have been waging an undeclared war against the Hussites for years with tens of thousands of civilian casualties. The Hussites have, as UN observers have publicly admitted, drones with a range of up to 1,500 km that are capable of carrying out such a retaliatory operation.

But it must be proven that it was the terrible Iran that struck with its terrible missiles. This special media operation has already been launched by Mike Pompeo, Trump himself, CNN, and many other US and international media outlets. And apparently, it will continue at the upcoming UN General Assembly.

But the US calculation is perhaps larger. A strike against Iran will surely include not only the United States. Most likely, at least the Saudis will participate. And Iran is likely to respond. And that means war. A war that will at least engulf the entire Middle East. A war with the corresponding catastrophic consequences not only for global politics, but for the global oil and gas market.

The United States may well “step aside” and… sell weapons to the warring parties. And oil prices will immediately skyrocket. This will, in turn, lead to the collapse of the economic growth among the US’ main competitors: Europe, and of course, China.

I would very much hope that such a scenario will not be allowed to materialize…

Source: Rossa Primavera News Agency

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